A recent research report from GTHT forecasts that ASCENTAGE PHARMA GROUP (06855) will generate revenues of RMB 10.15 billion and RMB 24.08 billion in 2026 and 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 76.75% and 137.26%, respectively.
Based on comparable company analysis and considering the smooth progress of Olverembatinib and Lisaftoclax in overseas clinical trials, with multiple indications such as CML, AML, and MDS expected to gain approval abroad, the firm has assigned a 2026 price-to-sales multiple of 20x.
This yields a target price of RMB 54.36, equivalent to HK$59.09 at an exchange rate of HK$1 to RMB 0.92, leading to an 'Add' rating.
GTHT's key viewpoints are outlined below.
Establishment of a 'Dual-Engine' Model with Core Products Driving Growth
In 2025, the company demonstrated significant commercial success, achieving total revenue of RMB 5.74 billion, which represents a 90% year-on-year increase excluding payments from Takeda.
Revenue from Olverembatinib reached RMB 4.35 billion, while Lisaftoclax contributed RMB 70.85 million, summing to a combined RMB 5.06 billion.
The company ended 2025 with a cash balance of RMB 24.7 billion, indicating a robust financial position sufficient to support operations through 2027.
Global R&D Pipeline Shows Value with Key Studies Achieving Milestones
Research and development expenses increased to RMB 11.37 billion in 2025, up 20.1% year-on-year, primarily allocated to support nine global Phase III registration studies.
In a Chinese Phase II registration study for R/R CLL/SLL, Lisaftoclax demonstrated an objective response rate as high as 62.5%, showcasing potential best-in-class advantages in safety and combination therapy potential.
The global pivotal Phase III study for first-line treatment of intermediate-to-high-risk MDS (GLORA-4) has received approval and commenced simultaneously in China, the US, and Europe, indicating a broad market outlook.
Concurrently, the global pivotal Phase III study for Olverembatinib in treating Ph+ ALL (POLARIS-1) has yielded excellent preliminary data, with a minimal residual disease-negative complete response rate of 64%, providing solid evidence for future global market expansion.
Profit Forecast Assumptions
Firstly, for Lisaftoclax: 2026 is anticipated to be its first full sales year in China, with several overseas registration trials ongoing.
The assumption is that the first indication will gain overseas approval in 2028, with revenue growth rates of 155.5%, 74.9%, and 105.9% projected for 2026 through 2028, respectively.
Secondly, for Olverembatinib: As a third-generation BCR-ABL inhibitor, it is assumed the company will continue to increase its penetration in the Chinese CML market, with the first indication gaining overseas approval in 2028.
Revenue growth is forecast at 68.6%, 28.9%, and 30.7% for 2026-2028.
Additionally, it is assumed that Takeda will exercise its option for overseas rights to Olverembatinib in 2027, paying a milestone fee of RMB 10.18 billion.
Thirdly, for commercialization rights fees: Revenue growth is assumed to be 35.9%, 28.9%, and 30.7% for 2026-2028.
Risk factors highlighted include the potential for R&D progress and sales ramp-up to fall short of expectations.
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