Spot gold kicked off the trading week on Monday, September 21st, with the Asian session seeing international prices settle at $4,363.02 per ounce, marking a 0.33% decline (-$14.50) from the previous close of $4,377.52.
After an initial push to $4,383.34 in early trading, the precious metal drifted lower, touching a session low of $4,355. The intraday range stretched to roughly $25, with trading volumes remaining thin and price action confined to a weak, narrow consolidation pattern.
The US dollar index appears stalled at 100.24, showing signs of exhausted momentum. Without fresh catalysts, gold prices are left to continue their post-rate-hike consolidation and repair phase.
Turning to the technical picture, the weekly chart shows gold breaking a four-week losing streak, closing with a long lower wick and a bullish reversal candle. On the daily timeframe, prices are holding above the cluster of short-term moving averages, with a series of higher lows pointing to a gradual ascending structure.
Critical support sits at $4,335 per ounce, a level that was repeatedly tested and defended on Friday. This also marks the key stabilization point from this morning's trading. As long as this level holds on a closing basis, the short-term bias remains tilted to the upside. The next major support zone lies at the $4,300 handle, which serves as the lifeline for the ongoing rebound.
For today's trading approach, a long position could be considered if prices dip to the $4,335 area. On the upside, the first resistance cluster is located at $4,385-$4,398, representing the ceiling of the current rebound. A stronger barrier is seen at $4,435-$4,445, where substantial trapped longs from previous rallies reside, making a swift breakout unlikely without sufficient consolidation.
Key levels to watch: Resistance at $4,380 and $4,400; Support at $4,330 and $4,307.
Day-trading strategy: Aggressive longs near $4,340-$4,335, conservative longs at $4,312-$4,307, targeting $4,380 on a breakout. Aggressive shorts near $4,477-$4,482, conservative shorts at $4,492-$4,498, targeting $4,340 on a breakdown. Note: Gold's pivot line sits at $4,335 per ounce. These views are for reference only; strict risk management is advised in extreme market conditions.
WTI crude oil continued its losing streak in the Asian session on Monday, marking a fourth consecutive day of declines as prices hovered around the $94 mark. The aggressive rally that followed the breach of $100 has swiftly cooled as markets reassess Middle East supply risks.
With increasing signs of diplomatic de-escalation, investor concerns over further disruptions to energy shipping lanes have eased. This has prompted a significant unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into prices, driving crude from its highs into a sustained downward correction.
On the daily chart, WTI has printed consecutive bearish candles, with the downtrend from the highs becoming more pronounced. The bullish structure is showing cracks as prices slip below short-term moving average support. The RSI has retreated from overbought territory into weak ground, suggesting ample room for further short-term adjustment.
The four-hour timeframe reveals persistent downside pressure, with weak rebounds failing to gain traction. The center of gravity is shifting lower, and sellers maintain control in the short term. The broader pattern has shifted from high-level range trading to a weaker consolidation phase.
Key levels to watch: Resistance at $96.0 and $98.0; Support at $92.0 and $91.0.
Day-trading strategy: Aggressive shorts near $96.0±0.2, conservative shorts at $97.8±0.2, with stops set at 0.8 points above entry, targeting $93.5 on a breakdown. Aggressive longs near $92.4±0.2, conservative longs at $90.8±0.2, with stops 0.8 points below entry, targeting $95.0 on a breakout. Note: WTI's pivot line sits at $95.0 per barrel.
Please note that this market commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions and risks are solely the responsibility of the investor.
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