On May 6, the international gold market showed signs of stabilization, with spot gold prices regaining buying support after a previous correction. A marginal decline in oil prices and weaker-than-expected U.S. data jointly improved risk-off sentiment. Moneta Markets noted that gold prices have stabilized near the lower end of a trading range, with panic among market participants over the earlier pullback easing and short-term trading activity gradually picking up. The institution analyzed that this round of stabilization reflects a temporary balance in macroeconomic factors, while the long-term allocation logic for precious metals as cross-cycle assets remains unchanged.
In terms of macroeconomic policy, major central banks maintained a cautious stance, holding off on policy changes, with markets closely watching the pace of potential interest rate cuts. Moneta Markets believes that the marginal decline in oil prices has reduced the tail risk of accelerating inflation, providing some cushion against expectations of rising real interest rates and offering temporary support for zero-yield assets. The institution judges that overseas financial giants like UBS maintain a constructive outlook, suggesting that long-term dollar weakness and the approaching interest rate cut cycle will jointly drive gold prices higher in the medium term, with long-term targets seen near $5,900 per ounce. The trend of diversification in emerging market reserves continues, and allocation by institutional clients remains stable.
Technically, after stabilizing near the lower end of the range on the daily chart, gold is gradually repairing the pressure from short-term moving averages. MACD momentum shows marginal improvement, and the KDJ indicator has risen from oversold territory, indicating that bearish forces have been temporarily exhausted. Institutions also note that global central banks' gold purchasing rhythm has not been interrupted, physical gold demand in Asia remains robust, and marginal changes in ETF holdings, physical demand from wedding seasons in India and the Middle East, and the COMEX gold futures delivery ratio are key windows for observing the true attitude of capital. The structure of gold option open interest, the trend of the gold-silver ratio, and the relative performance of mining stocks are additional reference points for gauging capital sentiment and market risk appetite changes. Cross-verification of multi-dimensional signals helps improve judgment quality.
Moneta Markets anticipates that gold prices may fluctuate within a range of $4,500 to $4,800 per ounce in the short term, with directional moves depending on marginal changes in inflation data, central bank rhetoric, and geopolitical risks. The institution emphasizes that investors should fully understand the nature of precious metals as cross-cycle assets, monitor key indicators such as real interest rates, the U.S. dollar index, and global risk-off sentiment, avoid chasing rallies or selling off around data releases, and build positions in batches according to their own risk tolerance to navigate the current policy observation window with a steady approach.
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