[Gold] A Federal Reserve governor has formally submitted a resignation letter, indicating departure from the Board of Governors upon or before the new chairman assumes office. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City noted that while the U.S. economy has demonstrated significant resilience amid multiple challenges, inflation remains the most significant risk, with the overall job market remaining stable. Analysis: Following the new Fed chairman's appointment, market expectations lean hawkish, creating a fundamental headwind for gold. India's increase in import tariffs on gold also presents a consumption-side negative. Gold is expected to consolidate with a downward bias.
[Rebar (Steel Rebar)] According to Mysteel data, as of the week ending May 14th, rebar production stood at 2.014 million tons, an increase of 47,500 tons or 2.42% from the previous week. Mill inventory was 1.6754 million tons, down 123,000 tons or 6.84% week-over-week. Social inventory was 5.184 million tons, a decrease of 288,200 tons or 5.27% from the prior week. Apparent consumption reached 2.4252 million tons, a significant increase of 447,100 tons or 22.6% week-over-week. Analysis: The rebound in steel market demand this week was notably stronger than the increase in supply. The overall inventory of five major steel products declined, indicating the supply-demand fundamentals have not yet deteriorated. Considering the potential impact of the rainy season in southern regions on downstream construction, supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase slightly later, leading to a narrowing of inventory declines. Meanwhile, although steel mill production enthusiasm remains high, their willingness to chase higher prices for raw materials is limited. In the short term, steel prices are likely to trade within a narrow range with limited upside or downside potential.
[Methanol] The spot price for methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 3,097 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton. Inventory at Chinese methanol port terminals was 796,800 tons, a decrease of 125,200 tons from the previous period. Producer inventory for methanol sample companies was 363,800 tons, down 40,300 tons from the prior period, while sample companies' order backlogs were 225,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous period. China's methanol capacity utilization rate was 88.19%, down 3.33 percentage points week-over-week. Downstream overall capacity utilization was 70.57%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week. Analysis: Domestic methanol operating rates remain high while downstream demand is relatively stable. Port inventories saw a significant draw this week, primarily aided by minimal arrivals and exports, with pickups from mainstream social warehouses along the Yangtze River showing slight improvement. The domestic methanol market is weak; enterprise auction transactions are smooth. The port methanol market shows stronger basis differentials, but overall transaction volume is moderate. With port inventories trending downward and spot market performance average, coupled with ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations, methanol prices are expected to consolidate in the short term.
[Soda Ash (Sodium Carbonate)] The national mainstream price for heavy soda ash is 1,238 yuan/ton, remaining relatively stable recently. Weekly soda ash output was 798,400 tons, up 2.54% week-over-week. Total soda ash producer inventory was 1.8817 million tons, up 1.36% week-over-week. The operating rate for float glass was 69.58%, up 0.14 percentage points week-over-week. The national average price for float glass was 1,139 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Total inventory for national float glass sample enterprises was 76.4111 million weight cases, down 2.38% week-over-week. Analysis: Float glass operations are stable, with enterprise inventories declining. Overall domestic market trading is moderate, with some companies offering flexible pricing to promote shipments. The domestic soda ash market shows no significant fluctuations; production facilities are largely stable with minor adjustments. Downstream demand is lukewarm with poor purchasing enthusiasm, maintaining just-needed restocking. Soda ash enterprise inventories are high and rising. With stable supply and weak demand, soda ash prices are expected to consolidate with a slight downward bias in the short term.
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