Goldman Sachs issued a research report stating that, following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, both Brent crude futures and New York crude futures have retreated to around $95 per barrel. This development largely aligns with the bank's expectations. The bank anticipates that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by the end of this week, with Persian Gulf exports gradually returning to pre-conflict levels within a month. The bank maintained its oil price forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of this year unchanged, projecting Brent at $82 and $80 per barrel respectively, and WTI at $77 and $75 per barrel. However, it slightly lowered its second-quarter forecasts for Brent and WTI to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively. Despite this, the bank believes the current situation remains fluid and sees overall risks to its oil price forecasts as skewed to the upside, due to the potential for supply disruptions to last longer than expected and for crude production to sustain losses. In a adverse scenario, if the ceasefire fails to hold and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is delayed by one month, even if Persian Gulf output fully recovers to pre-war levels, the average Brent price in the fourth quarter could still reach $100 per barrel. In an extreme adverse scenario, where reopening is delayed and Middle Eastern production sustains a loss of 2 million barrels per day, the average Brent price could potentially surge to $115 per barrel. Regarding natural gas, the bank assumes liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport volumes will gradually normalize starting mid-April, expecting the TTF gas price to remain between €40 and €50 this year. Concurrently, the bank revised down its second-quarter TTF price forecast from €70 to €50, while maintaining its forecast for the second half of the year at around €42.
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