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Earning Preview: MongoDB Inc. this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 28.39%, and institutional views are bullishAbstract
MongoDB Inc. is scheduled to release fiscal fourth-quarter results on March 2, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue acceleration, margin resilience, Atlas trajectory, and updated guidance commentary amid broad buy-side optimism.Market Forecast
Based on current market expectations, MongoDB Inc.’s revenue for the current quarter is projected at 667.12 million, up 28.39% year over year, with adjusted EPS expected at 1.45, up 114.68% year over year, and EBIT forecast at 141.95 million, up 143.62% year over year. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin are not available in the dataset. The main business is expected to remain driven by subscription expansion and steady enterprise consumption patterns, with sell-side previews pointing to resilient customer spend and continued workload adoption. The most promising segment remains Atlas within subscription, where one sell-side preview expects growth to exceed 31% year over year this quarter, while subscription revenue last quarter was 609.07 million.Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, MongoDB Inc. delivered revenue of 628.31 million, up 18.69% year over year, a gross profit margin of 71.48%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.01 million with a net profit margin of -0.32%, and adjusted EPS of 1.32, up 13.79% year over year. A notable highlight was operating leverage on a non-GAAP basis: EBIT rose 21.32% year over year to 123.12 million and adjusted EPS exceeded consensus by approximately $0.52. The main business was subscription-led, with total revenue up 18.69% year over year to 628.31 million, comprising 609.07 million from subscription and 19.24 million from services.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Subscription and Cloud Platform Momentum
The quarter’s setup centers on the scale and durability of subscription consumption as customers continue running critical workloads and expanding use cases across the data platform. The market’s 28.39% year-over-year revenue growth expectation implies an acceleration from last quarter, aligning with prior signs of healthy enterprise adoption and increasing workload breadth. A key watch item will be whether consumption trends remained steady through the period and if net expansion metrics can support the implied top-line step-up without an outsized reliance on new logo volume. Gross margin dynamics will be scrutinized for stability against last quarter’s 71.48%, as revenue mix and scale benefits often drive cost efficiencies even when growth is led by usage-based components. Operating leverage is also in focus: with EBIT forecast to increase 143.62% year over year to 141.95 million, the setup suggests meaningful incremental profitability if expenses track within plan and revenue meets or exceeds consensus. The sequential improvement in GAAP net profit seen last quarter, alongside a 95.73% quarter-on-quarter change in net profit, sets a base for potential further improvement this quarter if revenue upside materializes and operating expense growth remains controlled.Atlas as the Growth Engine
Sell-side previews indicate confidence that Atlas, the company’s cloud database service within the subscription portfolio, can continue to outgrow the consolidated average. One widely circulated preview expects Atlas growth to exceed 31% year over year in the quarter, citing healthy enterprise demand, steady consumption patterns, and momentum in new workloads from data-rich applications. The presence of both AI-native and traditional enterprise customers in recent commentary highlights the breadth of demand drivers, spanning net-new builds and modernization of existing systems. For investors, how Atlas tracks relative to that low-30s percentage growth marker will matter more than any single product announcement. Upside on Atlas typically correlates with stronger consolidated growth given its share within subscription and favorable incremental margins at scale. The degree of balance between large-deal momentum and smaller enterprise expansions will also be watched, as stronger large-deal activity can quickly impact quarterly revenue trajectory, while broad-based consumption expansion may be steadier and more durable. Positive commentary around workload diversity or cross-sell into adjacent data services would be a constructive sign for sustaining multi-quarter growth.Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Three elements stand to exert the greatest influence on the stock near term: Atlas growth versus expectations, updated profitability trajectory, and the tone of guidance. On growth, any indication that Atlas exceeded the ~31% year-over-year bar could set expectations for sustained outperformance, especially if management highlights consistent consumption across enterprise cohorts and strong pipeline coverage into the coming quarter. If Atlas aligns with or modestly trails that marker, the stock reaction will hinge on revenue mix details and management’s commentary on the breadth of demand and conversion of late-stage opportunities. On profitability, the consensus framework implies robust operating leverage, with EBIT forecast at 141.95 million and adjusted EPS at 1.45, both pointing to a continuation of last quarter’s margin progress if delivered. Investors will parse whether incremental margin gains stem from durable efficiency improvements, scale effects, or temporary cost timing; durable drivers are more likely to be rewarded. Finally, the cadence of guidance commentary will be pivotal: some sell-side previews have flagged potential full-year revenue growth guidance around the high-teens to 20% range with operating margins near the high teens, broadly in line with current expectations. A guide above this range or a confident tone around enterprise demand, pipeline quality, and workload diversity would likely be taken positively; a more cautious framing could pressure the stock even if the quarter is solid on reported metrics.Analyst Opinions
Across opinions gathered between January 1, 2026 and February 23, 2026, the balance is overwhelmingly bullish, with 100% of in-period notes and rating actions skewing positive. - On February 13, 2026, RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria maintained a Buy rating and set a $500.00 price target, reiterating a constructive stance into the quarter. RBC’s subsequent preview on February 18, 2026 emphasized investor focus on growing traction with AI-native customers and the potential for that demand to reinforce Atlas acceleration, underscoring a favorable setup into the print. - On January 7, 2026, Truist Securities lifted its price target to $500.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting confidence in near-term growth durability and the platform’s ability to capture larger enterprise spend over time. - On January 14, 2026, Oppenheimer highlighted a multi-year opportunity framed by workloads that can benefit from the platform’s capabilities, maintaining an Outperform rating. In a later note circulated in February, Oppenheimer previewed a potential revenue beat of roughly 4% to 5% for the fiscal fourth quarter and called out Atlas growth likely exceeding 31% year over year, while revising its price target to $425 to reflect a more balanced medium-term risk-reward. Importantly, that combination—an expected near-term beat and double-digit operating margin trajectory—remained above the bar for an Outperform stance, reinforcing the prevailing constructive bias among institutions this season.The bullish side, representing the majority view, coalesces around three core arguments. First, the current-quarter consensus implies a clear acceleration to 28.39% revenue growth year over year, and multiple institutions believe consumption trends and enterprise deal activity have been supportive, especially in cloud-based deployments. With Atlas expected by some to exceed the low-30s growth mark, the growth engine appears intact and capable of supporting both top-line expansion and incremental operating leverage. Second, adjusted profitability has been trending up as scale effects improve unit economics; last quarter’s 21.32% year-over-year EBIT expansion and the significant EPS outperformance demonstrate execution that investors often reward when paired with strong growth. Third, the tone around forward guidance is expected to be constructive: one preview framed potential full-year revenue growth guidance in the high-teens to 20% range and operating margin around the high teens, which, if realized, would align with or slightly exceed many investors’ baseline expectations. Bulls argue that a guidance framework near those levels, paired with signs of healthy Atlas consumption and balanced enterprise demand, could support continued confidence in the medium-term trajectory. The combination of solid near-term growth, expanding margins, and credible multi-quarter demand drivers is the crux of the positive view heading into March 2, 2026.
In synthesizing these perspectives, the market’s near-term debate is not whether growth is present, but how consistently it can exceed expectations without elevating execution risk. The bullish view holds that the platform’s breadth, steady enterprise expansions, and robust pipeline coverage reduce dependence on any single cohort or product dynamic. Even Oppenheimer’s reduction of its price target to $425 while keeping an Outperform rating reflects a view that the quarter itself can surpass the bar—partly through Atlas outperformance—while longer-term forecasts are fine-tuned to more measured, yet still healthy, growth and margin assumptions. Across the collected opinions in period, investors leaning into the bull case are primarily seeking confirmation that Atlas growth meets or beats the low-30s marker, that adjusted margin expansion persists, and that management’s forward commentary supports another year of high-teens to low-20s revenue growth with disciplined cost management.
Overall, the consensus-aligned preview suggests MongoDB Inc. can deliver a solid quarter with upside potential concentrated in Atlas performance and operating leverage. If those elements come through and guidance proves consistent with the institutional framework outlined this season, the majority bullish stance would likely remain intact after March 2, 2026 Post Market.
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