Following the Spring Festival, the apple spot market has shown strong performance, with prices for premium-quality apples exhibiting a clear upward trend. The price increases are currently most evident in northwestern production regions, while Shandong's market remains generally stable, though smaller-sized apples have seen slight price gains. In Luochuan, for example, the mainstream transaction price for farmers' semi-premium grade apples sized 70# and above was maintained at 3.5–3.6 yuan per jin before the Spring Festival. After the holiday, buyer enthusiasm has noticeably increased, and the tight supply of high-quality apples has become more pronounced. The current mainstream transaction price has risen to 3.8–4.0 yuan per jin, an increase of 9.86%. In areas such as Baishui, premium-grade stock has been largely sold out, and recent transaction prices have also seen a modest rise of 0.2–0.3 yuan per jin.
In Gansu production areas, inventory digestion is progressing rapidly, and prices for merchants' stock have risen significantly. In Jingning, the transaction price for merchants' apples sized 75# and above was around 7.2 yuan per jin before the New Year, and has now reached 7.7–7.8 yuan per jin. In Shandong, the market for larger-sized apples is generally stable with little price fluctuation. Due to an increase in overseas orders, foreign trade buyers are purchasing more small and medium-sized apples. Prices for 60#–65# and 70# sizes have increased by 0.2–0.3 yuan per jin.
As competing fruits gradually exit the market, demand for apples remains healthy. Entering March, the supply of citrus fruits has gradually decreased. Key competitors like sugar oranges are in the final stages of their sales cycle, with the overall quality of available stock declining significantly compared to earlier periods. Lower-quality supplies are being sold at discounted prices, while prices for higher-quality stock show an upward trend. With competing fruits leaving the market, overall demand for apples is gradually recovering. Market arrivals have been increasing steadily after the Spring Festival, and sales volume data indicates overall sales are not significantly different from last year.
Due to increased production costs and strong sales of high-quality apples, selling prices for premium stock in some markets have been gradually rising. Feedback from market traders indicates that many currently face supply shortages in their own inventories, which is a key factor driving active purchasing in production areas.
Anomalies in storage structure are leading to a stronger market in the west and a weaker one in the east. Overall apple inventory this season is relatively low. As of March 12, cold storage holdings stood at 4.4404 million tons, 304,200 tons lower than the same period last year. Beyond low inventory levels, an abnormal inventory structure is a major issue facing sales this season. Feedback from production areas indicates a scarcity of high-quality stock and a higher proportion of medium-grade apples, making it difficult for buyers to source premium fruit. The quality of apples from northwestern production areas is significantly higher than those from eastern regions, making the "strong west, weak east" dynamic increasingly evident. Currently, significant price increases are mainly seen for higher-quality stock. Driven by this trend, prices for medium and lower-grade apples remain stable. This situation may persist until the end of the current production season.
With preparations for the Qingming Festival approaching, prices for high-quality apples may continue to rise. Historically, April and May are peak sales seasons for apples, a period when supplies of other fruits are low and market demand for apples gradually increases. The peak season traditionally begins with stockpiling for the Qingming Festival, leading to a noticeable rise in market sales volume. Preparations for this year's Qingming Festival are expected to begin in mid-to-late March, which may lead to increased purchasing by market traders. According to trader feedback, many still face supply gaps, and their existing inventories may be insufficient to meet peak season demand. It is anticipated that prices for high-quality apples may continue to rise in the latter half of March, primarily in Shaanxi production areas. Prices for farmers' semi-premium grade apples could rise to 4.0–4.2 yuan per jin, while merchants' stock sized 80# and above may reach around 5.5 yuan per jin. The overall quality of apples from Shandong production areas is relatively poor, leading to weaker buyer interest. Currently, merchants are primarily purchasing striped-red varieties and small-to-medium-sized fruit, and significant price changes are unlikely in the short term, with prices expected to remain generally stable.
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