Analysis of the Latest Gold Market Trends: On May 20, during the early European session, spot gold was trading around $4467.80 per ounce. The price fell nearly 2% on Tuesday, reaching a low of $4464.85 per ounce, its lowest level since March 30. This decline was driven by a stronger US dollar and persistent inflation concerns, which have heightened expectations for interest rate hikes and pushed up bond yields. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike within the year has risen to 61.3%. Spot gold dropped 1.84% to $4481.83 per ounce, touching its lowest point since March 30 during the session. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield approached its highest level in over a year, while the US dollar strengthened concurrently, as markets anticipate the Fed may adopt a hawkish stance to curb energy-driven inflation. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, and a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
Technical Analysis of Gold: From a technical perspective, the weekly chart shows continued weakness, with gold prices closing lower for five consecutive weeks, forming a phase of sustained declines. The weekly moving averages are arranged in a bearish pattern, with prices consistently pressured below the MA5 and MA10 moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, gradually expanding the downside space. The overall bullish trend has completely ended, establishing a medium-term weak pattern. The daily chart similarly reflects a bearish bias, with yesterday's session closing as a medium bearish candlestick. Today's attempt to rebound after probing lows failed to reclaim key moving averages. The MACD indicator maintains a bearish crossover and downward trajectory, with bearish momentum continuing to be released. The $4550 level has formed a strong short-term resistance zone, and the rebound in gold prices appears weak.
On the shorter time frame, the hourly chart shows a consolidating and corrective pattern. After a rapid decline in the morning session, an oversold rebound occurred. Short-term indicators show minor divergences, supporting a technical rebound in gold prices. However, the rebound's magnitude is limited and failed to break through the resistance of the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a typical weak correction rather than a reversal signal. Immediate downside support focuses on the $4480-$4500 range. An effective break below this zone could lead to a further decline towards new lows around $4420-$4400. On the upside, attention should be paid to the short-term resistance near the dense high of $4560-$70 from last Friday's evening session. A break above this level would shift focus to the $4600-$10 area for the next struggle. The primary structure maintains a weak and downward-biased expectation. For the beginning of the week, the operational strategy retains the expectation of a continued adjustment with a high-altitude (selling on rallies) approach, while also being prepared for potential short-term corrective rebounds. In summary, the suggested short-term trading strategy for gold today is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance is focused around $4505-$4530, while key short-term support lies around $4430-$4400.
Analysis of the Latest Crude Oil Market Trends: During Wednesday's European session, crude oil was trading near $103.10, having recovered to the upper edge of its consolidation range, with caution warranted for a potential upward breakout. The international crude oil market experienced a typical "sentiment reversal trading day" on Tuesday. WTI crude oil opened significantly lower during the Asian and early European sessions, driven by market expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, with intraday lows approaching the $101 area. However, as former US President Trump subsequently released a firm stance in a public speech, the market quickly repriced geopolitical risk premiums. WTI crude oil ultimately strongly recovered all its losses and stabilized above the $103 mark.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices are moving across the moving average system, indicating the medium-term objective trend is entering a震荡 (consolidation) rhythm. The overall震荡 (consolidation) pattern in crude oil's price action is considered a secondary rhythm and has been maintained for two months, with the medium-term subjective trend direction being upward. Currently, the MACD indicator is operating near the zero axis, showing waning bullish momentum. The medium-term trend is expected to maintain its震荡 (consolidation) pattern as the dominant theme. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, the price action is震荡 (consolidating) again near the upper boundary of the range, testing this level. The short-term objective trend maintains a震荡 (consolidation) rhythm. In terms of momentum, bullish momentum is gradually strengthening. Currently, the $100关口 (key level) provides strong support for oil prices. It is anticipated that intraday crude oil movements will likely continue to operate in a high-level震荡 (consolidation) rhythm above the $100 level. In summary, the suggested operational strategy for crude oil today is primarily to buy on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance is focused around $105.5-$108.0, while key short-term support lies around $100.0-$98.0.
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