A Reuters survey conducted from August 12 to 17 polled 104 economists, with 94 of them (90%) anticipating the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its September 15-16 policy meeting.
According to the Reuters website, "July inflation data was broadly neutral, but the latest economic activity figures do show signs of softening. This could push more FOMC policymakers toward a wait-and-see stance rather than an immediate hiking position," noted Ryan Wang, U.S. economist at HSBC.
Nearly 80% of respondents (80 economists) expect no rate change before the end of the year, a proportion that has remained largely steady over the past three months. The survey's median forecast indicates this holding pattern could extend through the end of next year as well.
Additionally, 22 economists believe there will be at least one rate hike this year, while only 2 forecast a cut. However, a small minority of forecasters think a move could come as early as next month.
"The FOMC's debate next month will hinge entirely on the inflation outlook," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets. He projects the core PCE deflator's annualized growth rate could approach 3%. "That's not good enough. So, as things stand, I still expect the FOMC to tighten policy next month."
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