A highly exciting prediction has emerged in the cryptocurrency investment space, forecasting a major event for 2026: U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to formally integrate the "cryptocurrency market" into the "Too Big to Fail" financial system—placing it on par with Wall Street giants like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs in terms of systemic importance.
When the fraudulent crypto exchange FTX collapsed in 2022, triggering global market turmoil, the White House did not consider it their problem. The Biden administration at the time held deep skepticism toward Bitcoin and other blockchain-based crypto assets, while regulators maintained a firewall between volatile crypto businesses and mainstream financial institutions. Fast forward to 2026, the landscape for cryptocurrencies is drastically different.
Donald Trump and his family have deep ties to the crypto industry. A loss of confidence in a major stablecoin could severely damage the U.S. Treasury market and broader financial liquidity, including stocks, bonds, and forex. Should another FTX-like collapse occur, the current administration is expected to intervene forcefully.
Crypto supporters already have reasons to thank Trump. According to CoinGecko, in the 12 months following his 2024 election victory, the total market capitalization of digital assets—including Bitcoin and Ethereum—surged by $1.2 trillion, with both cryptocurrencies repeatedly hitting all-time highs. The Trump administration has actively supported the sector, prioritizing legislation to provide stablecoins and dollar-backed crypto assets with a solid legal foundation.
Wall Street estimates suggest the broader "Trump conglomerate" earned $802 million in profits from crypto operations in the first half of 2025. If Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies face accelerated sell-offs, the president and his family have strong incentives to intervene in any form.
**The Triggers Are Already in Place** The crypto market is no stranger to potential triggers for a bailout. The most dramatic scenario would involve a run on a major stablecoin like Tether’s USDT, which had a market cap of around $180 billion as of late November. Backed by short-term U.S. government debt and redeemable for dollars, USDT’s stability remains untested in a full-blown crisis.
Tether’s September reserve report showed a $7 billion equity buffer—meaning a 4% drop in asset value could leave dollar-pegged tokens unsupported unless the parent company steps in. This safety margin may prove insufficient in a crisis, as seen with Circle’s USDC in 2023 when Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse caused it to "break the buck" (trade below $1).
Tether’s reserves appear riskier, with Bitcoin accounting for 5% and precious metals like gold and silver making up 7%. A mass exodus from USDT could destabilize crypto markets, where most dollar-crypto pairs are quoted in USDT, potentially freezing market mechanisms. A run could also force stablecoin issuers to dump U.S. Treasuries, disrupting global financial assets—a scenario even a market-friendly White House would monitor closely.
Another risk is a crypto exchange collapse. The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) recently warned that major exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Bybit—unlike traditional stock exchanges—often combine trading with custody, lending, and yield services, creating contagion risks. A hack, trading loss, or loan default could cripple an exchange’s ability to provide critical market functions.
Industry concentration exacerbates the danger: CoinGecko data shows Binance, MEXC, Gate, Bitget, and Bybit handled 71% of centralized exchange spot trading volume in July. The ESRB concluded that the failure of a major exchange could have "severe or catastrophic" consequences for the crypto ecosystem.
**How a Crypto "Too Big to Fail" Bailout Might Work** The Trump administration’s response would depend on the crisis. A Tether liquidity crunch might mirror a bank run, prompting measures similar to those taken during the 2023 regional banking crisis—such as Fed-backed loans collateralized by high-quality assets, possibly funded by the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (used recently for Argentina).
To prevent an exchange collapse from triggering systemic losses, the government could leverage its "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" or "Digital Asset Stockpile"—established in early 2025 to consolidate state-held crypto, including 200,000 BTC ($18 billion at late-November prices). Though intended to be budget-neutral, Trump might waive this requirement or even sell gold to prop up distressed digital assets.
Another motivator for intervention: mainstream banks are now permitted to engage in crypto activities, including custody and stablecoin-related financing, per a March ruling by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. This raises the risk of crypto contagion infecting traditional finance.
Politically, intervention makes sense. A Gallup poll found one in seven U.S. adults held crypto as of July 2024, while advocacy group Public Citizen reported crypto firms accounted for 44% of corporate political donations that election cycle. Trump’s pro-crypto policies fueled the 2025 bull market—meaning a crash could be blamed on him. With midterm elections approaching, ignoring crypto panic would be difficult, and threats to his family’s wealth add further incentive.
Ironically, Bitcoin’s creation was partly a protest against the 2008 bank bailouts. Nearly two decades later, crypto seems destined to join the very "Too Big to Fail" club it once opposed.
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