Yesterday, the baijiu sector, which had been declining for five consecutive years, experienced an explosive surge, with Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. soaring over 8% and Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. among several stocks hitting the daily limit-up. The core market indicator, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai, rapidly rebounded from around 1,500 yuan to nearly 1,700 yuan within a week, providing crucial support for this market movement.
According to reports released that day by China Merchants Securities and Guotai Junan Securities, this rally is not a broad, sentiment-driven surge but rather the result of combined fundamental data and an extreme institutional positioning structure. The core reasons are twofold: firstly, Moutai's sell-through data grew against the trend by over 15%, directly disproving the market's previous pessimistic expectation of a "price collapse"; secondly, institutional holdings have fallen to a historical low of 3.5%, and this low positioning, catalyzed by positive news, triggered a panic-driven replenishment of funds, creating a "short squeeze" effect.
The reports indicate that the current market dynamic reflects a sharp "K-shaped" divergence. Apart from a few leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye, the industry's winter is far from over. Channel data shows that core products from brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu have experienced sell-through declines as high as 20%-30%, demonstrating a significant trend of "concentration towards the top."
On a macro level, marginal adjustments to real estate policies and the "15th Five-Year Plan" strategy to expand domestic demand provide a macroeconomic backdrop for valuation recovery in the pro-cyclical baijiu sector. For investors, while bottom signals have emerged, this does not constitute a full-blown bull market. Strategically, one should focus on the divergence theme, prioritizing the allocation of Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd., which boasts robust sell-through and prices, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. with its solid fundamentals; for sub-premium brands that show no improvement in sell-through and suffer from high inventory, caution is warranted regarding the performance verification risks following any rebound.
The rare sharp surge in the baijiu sector yesterday was essentially catalyzed by three factors: an extremely cleared-out ownership structure, marginally improving macro policies, and the dividends from market-oriented reforms by leading companies.
From a capital flow perspective, the sector's ownership structure is exceptionally clean. The institutional holding ratio remains at a historical low of 3.5%, flat quarter-on-quarter, indicating that potential selling pressure has significantly diminished. In this state, any marginal positive news can trigger substantial upward price elasticity.
On the macro front, the real estate sector, an important indicator linked to baijiu demand, is seeing policy easing. Regulatory authorities no longer require multiple real estate developers to report their "three red lines" metrics monthly, and official statements have called to "shorten the adjustment period as much as possible." This policy shift provides crucial support for the valuation recovery of the pro-cyclical baijiu sector.
Furthermore, internal changes at leading companies are releasing dividends. Since December 2025, the market-oriented transformation strategy proposed by Moutai (covering products, pricing, and channels) has begun to show results. Among these, channel innovation measures, exemplified by the launch of regular Feitian Moutai on the "i Moutai" platform, have successfully stimulated incremental demand from mass consumption, becoming a key micro-level driver behind the better-than-expected fundamentals.
The market's biggest previous concern—a collapse in Moutai's price system—has been strongly disproven by the latest hard channel data. Core evidence is reflected in three aspects: price, sell-through, and demand structure.
Firstly, prices have shown strong rebound resilience. Moutai's wholesale price has rebounded powerfully from a阶段性底部 of around 1,500 yuan. China Merchants Securities research indicates its wholesale price has risen to nearly 1,700 yuan, while Guotai Junan further points out that the market transaction price exceeded 1,700 yuan on January 29th. The tight short-term supply-demand dynamic supports prices being prone to rise rather than fall.
Secondly, sell-through data far exceeded pessimistic market expectations. Against the backdrop of普遍 double-digit declines in sell-through across the baijiu industry, Moutai's sell-through growth rate in several key markets exceeded 15%, significantly diverging from the industry trend.
Finally, the demand structure has undergone profound changes. Direct sales channels like "i Moutai," releasing volume at the official price of 1,499 yuan, have greatly stimulated genuine mass consumption demand. Data shows that the proportion of mass consumption demand has surged significantly from previous single-digit levels to over 20%. In January alone, "i Moutai" is expected to contribute over 1,500 tons of pure incremental volume, serving as the key engine driving its total demand to achieve double-digit growth.
This rebound is not a signal of a comprehensive industry recovery; aside from Moutai and Wuliangye, the overall winter for the baijiu industry persists. The latest channel survey data reveals an extremely harsh landscape of brand differentiation.
Wuliangye's performance is relatively stable, with year-on-year growth in sell-through, normal shipment progress, and channel inventory at reasonable levels. In stark contrast, other brands are under significant pressure. Luzhou Laojiao has seen sell-through declines of 20%-30% in core markets like Sichuan, with inventory climbing to 2-3 months. Gujing Gongjiu shows structural deterioration, with sell-through of its core product "Gu 20" down about 20%, while Gu 5 and Tribute Edition are also declining, with only the Gu 8/16 series remaining stable.
More严峻的是, the sub-premium price segment has become a disaster area. Shede JiuYe's market share fell by nearly 20% in 2026, Qinghua Lang and Jiannanchun also experienced high single-digit declines in sell-through, and declines for Yingjia Gongjiu's products like Cave Storage 16/20 were同样明显.
This pattern clearly indicates that the industry is experiencing an extreme logic of "concentration towards the top." Market share, cash flow, and consumer recognition are rapidly converging towards absolute leaders like Moutai and Wuliangye, while a large number of companies lacking brand moats and channel control are undergoing a difficult process of被动出清.
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