ECB Governing Council Member Sees Diminished Likelihood of Further Rate Hikes

European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras has indicated that a surprisingly sharp drop in energy prices, coupled with a slowdown in eurozone inflation, suggests the ECB may not need to continue raising interest rates after its June hike.

The Governor of the Bank of Greece, speaking in Sintra, Portugal, noted that Wednesday's report showing consumer price growth slowing to 2.8% was a "significant downside surprise." He stated that officials must simultaneously monitor how businesses are passing on energy costs and the impact of the artificial intelligence investment boom.

"I don't think anything will happen in July unless there is a huge change in the situation," Stournaras said in an interview on the sidelines of the ECB's annual forum. "In my view, perhaps it is good to stay put for a while."

Following last month's increase of the benchmark interest rate to 2.25%, ECB officials must now consider whether further policy tightening is necessary, even as peace talks between the US and Iran have brought energy markets back to pre-war levels.

Stournaras said that central bank governors from Gulf states recently informed their counterparts that damage to energy infrastructure "was not that severe, and Iran will return to the market with a significant amount of oil."

He noted this contrasts with previous analysis, which suggested oil and gas prices would take a long time to fall even if the Middle East conflict ended quickly.

However, Stournaras warned that the second-round effects of recent price shocks still warrant close attention.

"In Europe, many times when oil prices go up, it is passed through immediately," he said. "But when oil prices go down, the same magnitude of decline does not occur. This is due to a lack of competition, or in countries like Greece, because of excess demand."

Stournaras added that significant spending in the artificial intelligence sector could also have an impact, for example, reflected in import prices for electronics from regions like South Korea and Taiwan.