December 19 - As emphasized throughout this week, gold may experience corrective movements despite its bullish trend. Since this year's rally, market consensus has been exceptionally strong, which often leads to violent shakeouts and liquidation traps by major players. The past four days of volatility have demonstrated this pattern clearly: a strong rally on Monday, minor corrections on Tuesday, choppy upside on Wednesday, followed by Thursday's sharp pullback after hitting fresh highs—all aligning with Junqi's projections.
No surprises here—we've witnessed both the power of the trend and the expected corrective retracements. Recent price action has repeatedly shown rapid pullbacks after breakouts, with last Friday's session being particularly pronounced. Yesterday followed the same script—gold prices consistently extend briefly after breaking new highs, only to face steep declines shortly after. This reinforces our stance of maintaining bullish exposure without chasing rallies. Timing is critical: first breakout highs may warrant long entries, but second tests near those levels demand caution.
Technically, the current rally peaked at 4,374 before retreating sharply near the all-time high of 4,380. The daily chart now shows potential double-top formation risks with this historic resistance. The pullback has so far tested 4,309—the origin point of the previous upmove. Key intraday focus remains the 4,308 support: holding above suggests long positions, while breakdowns would require exiting longs for potential shorts. Only upon stabilization between 4,270-4,290 should fresh longs be reconsidered. Notably, the past two Fridays have seen aggressive U.S. session selloffs—today warrants heightened "Black Friday" vigilance.
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