UBS Keeps Buy Rating and HK$20 Target Price on PICC P&C

Stock News11-12 15:38

UBS has released a research report maintaining its "Buy" rating and HK$20 target price on PICC P&C (02328).

The company expects premium growth to accelerate year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven mainly by non-auto insurance, compared with growth of 1.7% in the first nine months.

Non-auto premium growth began to recover in the third quarter, rising 6.8% year-on-year versus 2.3% growth in the first half, supported by rapid growth in personal lines such as health insurance and the gradual recovery from the "commission reform." These positive factors are expected to become more evident in the fourth quarter.

The company forecasts 15% growth in the personal non-auto insurance segment in 2026, and government-related non-auto premiums such as agricultural insurance are also expected to grow faster than in the first half.

On the auto insurance side, the company expects premiums to be broadly flat in 2026, as an increase in insured vehicles is offset by a decline in average premium per vehicle. For 2027, the company aims for auto insurance premium growth at least in line with the industry.

Despite elevated natural disaster losses in the first nine months of 2026, the non-auto combined ratio remained stable year-on-year at 98%, indicating improved underlying profitability.

The company reiterated its target of a non-auto combined ratio below 100% for 2026, compared with 100.8% in 2025, implying a significant year-on-year improvement in the fourth quarter.

For auto insurance, the company believes a combined ratio improvement in 2026 is an achievable target, compared with 95.3% in 2025.

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