Last week, US stock markets experienced subdued trading volumes during the year-end period. Coupled with the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealing heightened internal disagreements among monetary policymakers regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, US equities faced downward pressure. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.67%, the S&P 500 index dropped 1.03%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.52%.
Global markets will welcome the first full trading week of 2026. The most anticipated event is the release of the US December 2025 non-farm payrolls report this Friday, which is expected to provide critical guidance on the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Data previously released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US unemployment rate for November 2025 unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, marking the highest level recorded since October 2021. Current market consensus expects approximately 55,000 new non-farm jobs added in December 2025, with the unemployment rate also projected to remain at 4.6%. Some analysts point out that if the December non-farm payroll data once again confirms the coexistence of slowing US job growth and elevated unemployment, market expectations for more substantial rate cuts from the Fed will intensify. Furthermore, inflation data for France, Germany, and the entire Eurozone for December 2025 will be released this week. Some analysts suggest that the new inflation figures are unlikely to alter the prevailing expectation that the European Central Bank will maintain its current stance in the near term.
In the crude oil market, prices rose last week as Saudi Arabia launched renewed airstrikes in Yemen, fueling investor concerns that Middle East instability could disrupt global oil supplies. Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have yet to yield substantive progress, delaying the return of Russian oil to the international market. These factors collectively pushed international oil prices higher for the week. The main US crude oil futures contract price increased by 1.02%, while the main Brent crude futures contract price rose by 0.18%.
In the precious metals market, significant volatility was observed last week. This was driven by a large volume of speculative funds closing positions ahead of the implementation of new margin rules for precious metals futures by the CME Group, which in turn triggered further profit-taking by investors. For the week, the main gold futures contract price fell by 4.9%, while the main silver futures contract price dropped by 8%.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is scheduled to begin adjusting the weightings of various commodities this Thursday. As a global benchmark for commodity investment, the index reflects overall market trends by aggregating futures prices for commodities like crude oil, gold, and silver. Analysts anticipate the index will reduce the weighting of precious metals, potentially triggering "technical selling" by funds that track it. This could lead to reduced holdings in gold and silver futures, putting downward pressure on precious metal prices in the short term.
The 2026 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas will run from January 6th to 9th local time, with keynote speeches from several tech company executives scheduled for this week. The core theme of this year's CES is expected to shift from traditional consumer electronics toward showcasing multiple technologies centered on artificial intelligence (AI), particularly the practical application of AI hardware. Wearable devices like smart glasses are anticipated to be a major focus. Additionally, the event will feature a concentrated display of various AI-powered humanoid robots, spanning application scenarios such as home services, smart manufacturing, logistics, delivery, and catering. Intel Corporation's first consumer-grade processor mass-produced using its 18A (1.8-nanometer-class) process is also set to debut, a component widely seen as crucial for Intel's potential turnaround.
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