Gf Securities released a research report stating that the shipbuilding industry has reached an inflection point in demand, driven by lower Q4 base figures, improved terminal freight rates, and reduced external uncertainties. The report emphasizes the beta recovery of the shipbuilding sector next year. From 2021 to 2024, the shipbuilding market was primarily driven by container ships and LNG carriers, but it declined in 2025 due to the impact of the U.S. Section 301 tariffs. The bank believes that the ship demand market will enter a 2.0 phase starting in 2026, comparable to the construction machinery boom in 2019, with a second acceleration in demand expected to drive valuation multiples higher. Key points from Gf Securities are as follows:
New ship orders turned positive year-on-year for the first time in January, with bulk carriers and tankers reaching a marginal inflection point. According to Clarksons, new ship orders in November grew by 3.5% (CGT), 37.6% (DWT), and 20.1% (value) year-on-year, showing a broad-based recovery. Bulk carrier and tanker orders accelerated in October-November, with bulk carrier DWT orders up 87.32% and 0.33% year-on-year, while tanker DWT orders surged 24.34% and 284% year-on-year. Further upward revisions are expected, and newbuild price indices for bulk carriers and tankers have shown signs of recovery. Cumulative new ship orders for the year reached 116 million DWT, with accelerated orders in H2 driven by industry recovery.
**Bulk Carriers**: The Simandou iron ore project officially commenced production in November 2025. Its output is equivalent to about 10% of China’s 2024 iron ore imports and 7.5% of global iron ore shipments. According to Xinde Marine, Drewry, and Clarksons, the Simandou project will increase bulk carrier demand by 2%-3%. Coupled with insufficient order backlogs and aging fleets, the supply-demand imbalance for bulk carriers is worsening.
**Tankers**: Long-term tightness in effective supply, with fleet renewal as the core driver. Clarksons data shows the average age of the tanker fleet exceeds 14 years, with over 21% of vessels older than 20 years. Meanwhile, orderbooks account for only 16.73% of existing capacity, insufficient to cover replacement demand for aging fleets. The shortage in tanker orders stems from weak demand and low freight rates, leading to cautious ordering by shipowners. Additionally, limited availability of very large docks and competition from container ship orders previously constrained capacity. However, as fleet aging intensifies and freight rates improve, ordering interest is rising.
**Container Ships**: Red Sea navigation remains uncertain, potentially impacting the market. However, demand for feeder vessels (below 8,000 TEU) remains strong, with supply growth expected to decline by 2027. Structural imbalances are more pronounced among leading shipowners, driving demand for mid-sized and feeder vessel replenishment in this cycle. Coupled with long-term efficiency declines, container ship demand still has underlying support.
**Risk Factors**: Changes in macroeconomic conditions, shifts in industry policies, slower-than-expected technological upgrades, and adjustments in U.S.-China tariff policies.
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