Caitong Securities initiated coverage on GREENTOWN MGMT (09979) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's entrenched leadership in China's property project management sector. The firm has established scale advantages and brand recognition, consistently topping the industry in newly contracted project area and sales volume, with ample order backlog and improving operational efficiency.
Key points from Caitong Securities' analysis include: - **Pioneer in Light-Asset Model**: As China's first listed project management company, GREENTOWN MGMT has been a trailblazer in the light-asset property development model. Its core business spans three segments—government-led, commercial, and capital-side project management—alongside ancillary services like financial, industrial-city, and supply-chain solutions. The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020.
- **Resilient Growth in New Contracts**: Despite market headwinds, GREENTOWN MGMT's newly contracted project area rose 13.9% YoY to 19.89 million sqm in 1H2025, maintaining its industry lead. The company prioritizes quality-driven expansion, with projected management fees from new contracts up 19.1% YoY to approximately RMB 5 billion, outpacing area growth.
- **Shareholder Returns and Buybacks**: The company has emphasized shareholder returns since its IPO, with payout ratios exceeding 100% in 2022–2023. It declared its first interim dividend in 1H2025 and actively repurchased shares, canceling 10 million shares (RMB 27.91 million total) by October 28.
**Risks**: Potential downside risks include a sharper-than-expected property market slump, intensifying industry competition, and client defaults.
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