The Hong Kong stock market maintained its leading momentum, opening lower today before advancing steadily to close up 0.51% with a turnover of HK$332 billion, remaining at high levels. The release of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes showed the federal funds rate target range was held steady between 3.5% and 3.75%. The vote was 10-2, with Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Millan dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut. Millan has consistently dissented since joining the Board in July last year, while this was Waller's first dissenting vote. This outcome is quite normal. Chair Powell maintained his consistent independence, stating that further policy easing could be considered if "tariff-induced inflation" peaks and recedes, and that a rate hike is not the baseline assumption for the next move. Synthesizing these remarks, market expectations now lean towards no rate cut in March, presenting a relatively neutral stance. Tensions surrounding Iran remain severe, pushing oil prices continuously higher. WTI crude futures breached $65 per barrel, rising 2.83% intraday to hit a new high since September 2025. Brent crude futures for March delivery surpassed $70 per barrel for the first time since September. EVA HOLDINGS (00838) rose nearly 4%. A cooling signal emerged: the Petroleum Fund LOF suspended large-amount subscriptions and large-amount regular fixed investment business from January 30, reducing the daily cumulative investment limit to just 2 yuan. Gold continued its upward momentum; on January 29, international gold markets broke historical highs, with spot London gold approaching $5,600. Domestic gold jewelry brands followed suit with price increases, with Chow Sang Sang, Lao Feng Xiang, and Lao Miao Gold all setting new highs above 1,700 yuan per gram for pure gold jewelry, a single-day increase of around 100 yuan. However, share prices of gold retailers did not follow, with Luk Fook Holdings (00590), for instance, showing a bearish candlestick at high levels. Most gold stocks also experienced pullbacks after initial surges. The primary market concern is whether new highs can be sustained, as significant gains could trigger profit-taking if the trend reverses. Risk warnings have also surfaced; the SDIC Silver LOF and E Fund Gold Theme LOF issued announcements on the same day, with the former announcing a full-day trading halt tomorrow and the latter further highlighting risks: investors face potential substantial losses if buying at high premiums. The final phase of a rally can be treacherous, and investors should proceed with caution. Other commodities maintained strong momentum; LME copper prices approached $14,000 per ton, reaching a record high. JIANGXI COPPER (00358) rose over 6% again; yesterday's mention of the laggard China Nonferrous Mining (01258) proved accurate, as it performed well today, gaining nearly 7%. Nickel resources rebounded actively, with Zhongwei New Materials (02579) stating the company has secured supply for 600 million wet tons of nickel ore resources through investments, equity stakes, long-term agreements, and offtake contracts, and has established a nickel raw material industrial base in Indonesia. The company has built nickel resource smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, with an equity volume of approximately 120,000 metal tons, expected to reach full capacity by 2026. In 2025, Zhongwei maintained its top position in shipments within the ternary precursor market, with European policy directions boosting electric vehicle penetration and the gradual commercialization of solid-state batteries driving growth for high-nickel ternary materials. Its stock rose nearly 7% today. He Yongqian, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce, stated that China and the US have held five rounds of consultations in 2025, achieving positive outcomes. He emphasized that bilateral economic and trade differences can be resolved through equal dialogue and consultations, promoting the implementation of consensus reached by leaders. China is willing to work with the US to maintain stable economic and trade relations, utilize consultation mechanisms effectively, manage differences, and advance cooperation. This indicates stable bilateral relations are beneficial for economic development. Furthermore, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to China has significantly impacted the Western world, with the cooperation between the two nations possessing considerable radiating influence. Subsequent visits to China seeking cooperation are expected to continue steadily. Following yesterday's mention of slight easing measures for the property sector, further catalysts emerged today. The General Office of the State Council issued a document encouraging local governments to implement policies combining inventory digestion of real estate, supporting land use for vacation projects and service facility construction. Combined with the previously mentioned improvement in micro-level property transaction data, property stocks erupted across the board today. KWG Group Holdings (01813) surged nearly 41%; China Aoyuan (03883) and Sunac China (01918) both rose over 30%; other major developers like Shimao Group (00813), CIFI Holdings (00884), Kaisa Group (01638), and Logan Group (03380) all gained over 20%. Yesterday's mentions, China Resources Land (01109), Vanke (02202), and Longfor Group (00960), all rose around 6%. Leading property brokerage Beike (02423) also rose over 7%. Rumors swirled that Blackstone is close to a deal to become the largest shareholder of New World Development (00017), which rose over 7% today. Just yesterday, consumption was deemed weak, but today the wind shifted again, with baijiu prices quietly rising. Third-party quotation platforms showed that on January 29, the price per bottle for a 2026 original case of Moutai rose by 20 yuan to 1,610 yuan per bottle, reclaiming the 1,600 yuan level, while loose bottle prices held at 1,570 yuan per bottle. Just days ago, Moutai's wholesale price was stable around 1,550 yuan per bottle. Multiple instant retail platforms in Beijing showed the retail price for standard Moutai had also rebounded to between 1,570 and 1,600 yuan per bottle. An even more explosive rumor circulated: that "Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) confirmed participation in SpaceX's Series A funding round." Kweichow Moutai responded to reporters, calling this "false information." This links Feitian Moutai with aerospace – is it all about 'flying'? Regardless, price increases often bring anecdotes. A-shares baijiu stocks all hit the daily limit-up today, likely due to prolonged suppression and the approaching Chinese New Year; with other sectors rallying wildly, baijiu deserved its share of the gains. The rationale is simply that the decline was too severe, though it can also be interpreted as preemptive speculation on a consumption rebound. In Hong Kong, Zhenjiu LiDu (06979) surged over 12%. China Tourism Group Duty Free (01880) also rose nearly 8%. East Buy (01797) caught the trend at the right time, supported by strong interim results showing year-on-year growth in both total revenue and net profit. From June 1 to November 30 last year, the company's total revenue reached 2.3 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year. Net profit reached 239 million yuan, with gross profit at 841.6 million yuan, up 14.5% year-on-year. The key factor was that GMV from self-operated products accounted for approximately 52.8% of total GMV during the reporting period, driving long-term growth in overall sales and profit. Self-operated products are its core competitive advantage, and its stock rose over 14% today. The paper industry reported explosive results. Nine Dragons Paper (02689) announced that the group expects to report a profit between approximately RMB 2.15 billion and RMB 2.25 billion for the interim period (the six months ended December 31, 2025), representing an increase of 216.0% to 230.7% compared to RMB 680 million in the same period last year. This performance is exceptionally strong, leading to a gap-up opening and a gain of over 9% today. Lee & Man Paper (02314) also rose over 5%. However, peaks often follow such positive news. On January 29, the General Office of the State Council issued a notice on publishing the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption." The plan points out that regarding the automotive aftermarket service, it will promote innovative development across the entire chain in automotive circulation and consumption, select pilot cities, support trials in key areas of the automotive aftermarket, accelerate the removal of restrictive measures, explore graded and classified management for vehicle modifications, improve the identification system for classic cars, strengthen the construction of RV camping bases, and research and improve relevant management systems and technical standards. It also emphasizes strengthening international cooperation, developing automotive culture, supporting the construction and operation of automotive museums, encouraging related events and activities, and creating innovative cross-border integration projects combining automobiles with tourism, culture, and sports. The plan aims to promote high-quality development of minibus and passenger car rentals, improve the rental service network, cultivate and expand business entities, and enhance rental service levels. It further seeks to promote self-driving tourism development, improve transportation conditions for self-driving tours, and create a safe, comfortable, and convenient travel environment for self-driving tourists. This primarily benefits automotive dealers: MEIDONG AUTO (01268), Zhongsheng Holdings (00881), and Yongda Automobiles (03669). SUNNY OPTICAL (02382): Annual Profit Attributable to Owners Surges 70%-75%, ASP and Gross Margin Show Growth Advantages. The company announced that the group expects profit attributable to owners for 2025 to be between approximately RMB 4.589 billion and RMB 4.723 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.0% to 75.0%. This is mainly attributable to: the push for high-end specifications in smartphone cameras, improvement in the group's product mix, increased average selling prices (ASP) and gross profit margins for mobile phone lenses and camera modules; and a gain of approximately RMB 919 million from the disposal of a subsidiary's equity. Analysis: The 70%-75% growth in profit attributable to owners includes a one-time item: the RMB 919 million investment gain from the disposal of a subsidiary's equity in exchange for shares of Goertek Optics (non-recurring). Excluding this factor, growth remains a significant 36%-41%, markedly outperforming the industry. The company possesses high-end barriers: technologies like glass-plastic hybrid lenses, periscope telephoto lenses, and large-sensor modules involve high technical barriers, leading to increased market share within the Android camp and enhanced pricing power. The automotive optical business represents a second growth curve: exploding demand for ADAS and smart cockpits is driving volume growth for automotive lenses/modules, which carry higher gross margins than mobile phone business, providing long-term growth support. Furthermore, the swap for Goertek Optics equity allows the company to focus on its core optical track, reducing drag from non-core assets, which can improve asset turnover efficiency. Recent stock price declines were primarily due to fluctuations in mobile phone demand, as global smartphone shipments remain low. However, given the company's focus on the high-end market, its ASP and gross margin still possess growth advantages. With the anticipated strengthening of consumption ahead of the New Year, the company's valuation is expected to improve.
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