Amid sharp fluctuations in gold prices, the retail market for gold and jewelry is undergoing a transformation that shares similarities with, yet differs fundamentally from, the 2013 "gold rush." On February 2, Guosen Securities stated in its latest research report that the current market cycle is fundamentally different from that of 2013. The 2013 rush was a "bargain-hunting" behavior following a gold price crash, which led to a severe overconsumption of subsequent demand. In contrast, the current (2026) demand is built against a backdrop of gold prices repeatedly hitting new highs, with the driving force shifting from pure speculation to "asset allocation" and "product narrative." Recently, gold prices have experienced significant volatility. From the beginning of 2026 to January 29, COMEX gold futures rose by 12.28%, but then fell sharply by 8.35% in a single day on January 30.
Using the 2013 "gold rush" as a reference, Guosen Securities' analysis suggests the current price fluctuations share a cyclical commonality with that period—a price correction after several years of sustained upward movement, which reinforces public belief in gold's long-term value preservation and appreciation. It is anticipated that a relatively concentrated surge in consumer enthusiasm will similarly emerge in the initial phase of the price decline. However, the structural differences are more pronounced. Guosen Securities points out that the core driver of the current gold-buying热潮 is not short-term bargain hunting for profit, but rather the pursuit of optimized asset allocation, wealth preservation, and inheritance, representing a more long-term behavioral shift. From the perspective of consumption attributes, market resilience is built upon diversified product craftsmanship, brand storytelling, and consumption scenarios. Since last year, the strong double-digit to triple-digit same-store sales growth of fixed-price products from companies like Laopu Gold serves as evidence for this trend. The 2013 "Gold Rush": Stimulus Effects Lasted for Months Guosen Securities defines the April 2013 "gold rush" as a phenomenon of relatively concentrated, large-scale purchases of gold products in China, occurring against the backdrop of a rapid price decline following a bull market lasting over a decade. After the official launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in October 2002, the Chinese gold market entered a bull run that lasted more than ten years. By October 30, 2012, the closing price of Shanghai Gold AU9999 reached 344.29 yuan per gram, representing an increase of 312.22% over the period. Gold prices began to fluctuate and weaken starting November 2012, with significant single-day drops of 7.03% and 5.22% recorded for Shanghai Gold on April 15 and 16, 2013, respectively. This round of price declines stimulated a surge in public purchasing enthusiasm in the short term. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales for gold, silver, and jewelry categories in April 2013 was 72.16%, a significant increase from 26.3% in March. This growth persisted for at least several months, contrary to market fears of being fleeting. For the entire year of 2013, the retail sales growth rate for gold, silver, and jewelry was 25.8%, accelerating by 9.8 percentage points compared to the 16% growth in 2012.
Annual gold consumption reached 1176.4 tons, an increase of 41.4%, making China the world's largest gold consumer for the first time, surpassing India. According to statistics from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government, mainland China's gold imports from and exports to Hong Kong in 2013 reached 1,108 tons and 474 tons respectively, both setting historical records. Corporate Performance Significantly Boosted but Overdraft Effects Emerged Later The "gold rush" significantly boosted the annual performance of related companies. The research report points out that for the fiscal year from April 2013 to March 2014, Luk Fook Holdings achieved revenue of 19.215 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.865 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50%, reaching a record high. The company stated in its financial report, "The rapid fall in gold prices in April and June 2013 triggered a gold rush, leading to a surge in demand for gold products. With gold prices remaining at relatively low levels, gold sales maintained a decent increase for several months following the gold rush." Chow Tai Fook, for the same fiscal period, reported revenue of 77.407 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.272 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%.
However, the subsequent sustained weakness in gold prices led to an overdraft of demand. From 2013 to 2015, Shanghai Gold AU9999 fell by 29%, rose by 1.19%, and fell by 7.3% year-on-year, respectively. In the absence of the anticipated gold price rebound, the "gold rush" to some extent透支了 consumer demand. In 2014, the retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry increased by only 0.4% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate in the past decade, with negative growth occurring from March to July. However, consumption recovered entering 2015, with retail sales for the category growing 11.1% year-on-year that year. Commonalities and Differences in the Current Cycle Guosen Securities points out two major commonalities between the current gold price fluctuations in 2026 and those in 2013:
First, the price decline was preceded by several years of sustained upward movement, reinforcing public recognition of gold products' long-term value preservation and appreciation; Second, if gold prices experience sustained consolidation and weakness, it is expected that consumption demand driven primarily by investment preferences will decline, affecting industry growth.
However, Guosen Securities believes the current price movement is merely a short-term adjustment over a few days, and further observation is needed. The structural differences are more critical. From the perspective of investment demand, the triggering logic is different. The current gold-buying热潮 has actually been gradually building against the backdrop of gold prices continuously reaching new highs.
Taking Caibai Shares, which has a relatively high proportion of investment gold business, as an example, its revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 and 2025 increased by 22.24% and 33.41% year-on-year, respectively, with its precious metal investment business growing even faster. For the full year 2025, it is预计 to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06-1.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.43%-71.07%.
According to World Gold Council data, domestic demand for gold bars and coins in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 61% quarter-on-quarter and 42% year-on-year. Cumulative purchases of gold bars for the full year 2025 reached 432 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28%, setting a new annual record. Guosen Securities believes this reflects that the core driver for consumers is the long-term pursuit of optimized asset allocation, wealth preservation, and inheritance, rather than short-term bargain hunting for profit. Product Power Drives a New Growth Logic According to the research report, another major structural change in the current cycle is that consumers are beginning to pay for "craftsmanship" and "culture," rather than focusing solely on the weight of gold and price fluctuations. From the perspective of consumption demand, market resilience is primarily built upon diversified product craftsmanship, brand storytelling, and consumption scenarios. Companies that have positioned themselves with differentiated brands or products and established brand recognition have achieved relatively high growth despite high gold prices.
Laopu Gold, leveraging its positioning in high-end ancient Chinese method gold and exquisite craftsmanship, achieved revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 251%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 286%. Chow Sang Sang, capitalizing on its trendy product designs and intangible cultural heritage craftsmanship, is预计 to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 436-533 million yuan for the full year 2025, a year-on-year increase of 125%-175%.
Simultaneously, fixed-price gold products themselves carry higher craftsmanship fees and brand premium rates, yet are experiencing rapid growth. For Luk Fook Holdings, same-store sales of priced gold products from October to December 2025 grew by 32% despite a high base from the previous year, with its gold-inlaid diamond series growing by 66%. This indirectly reflects consumers' willingness to pay for product design or cultural identity. Guosen Securities believes that short-term gold price fluctuations have a relatively minor impact on gold consumption demand. A correction from high price levels might instead stimulate the release of pent-up demand from观望 consumers.
A typical case is the gold price correction that began on October 20, 2025, which bottomed and moved sideways until the end of December. Despite this, gold jewelry demand in the fourth quarter demonstrated resilience, reaching a total value of 77.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Chow Tai Fook's retail value of priced jewelry in mainland China from October to December 2025 increased by 59.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 35.4 percentage points compared to the July-September period.
Guosen Securities states that the core driver of industry growth has shifted from channel expansion to product-driven growth. Products with high added value from craftsmanship can effectively offset the impact of gold price fluctuations on consumer willingness to purchase, generating "alpha returns" independent of gold price movements.
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