Oil Prices Edge Higher as Market Assesses Rising Supply Risks

Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday as investors weighed supply risks stemming from potential new U.S. sanctions on Russia and the blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers.

The January WTI crude futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained $0.21, or 0.38%, to settle at $56.15 per barrel.

"Crude futures are attempting to find support from the Venezuelan oil export blockade," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. "If the blockade persists, production in the region will likely be forced to shut down as there are no destinations to ship crude."

Media reports on Wednesday cited sources saying the U.S. is preparing new sanctions on Russia's energy sector if Moscow fails to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. However, a White House official told Reuters that President Donald Trump has not made any decisions regarding Russian sanctions.

"If no peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, the crackdown on Russia could escalate, quickly tightening global supplies," Kissler noted. "Combined with the Venezuelan export disruptions, current crude prices might be undervalued."

ING analysts stated in a report that further measures targeting Russian oil could have a greater supply impact than Trump's Tuesday announcement of "blocking sanctioned tankers entering or leaving Venezuela."

On Thursday, the UK government announced sanctions on 24 individuals and entities, including Russian oil company Tatneft, as part of its sanctions regime against Russia.

ING estimated that the Venezuelan blockade could affect about 600,000 barrels per day of the country's oil exports, though roughly 160,000 barrels per day bound for the U.S. are expected to continue. Chevron's tankers are still operating under prior U.S. government authorization.

It remains unclear how the U.S. will enforce the blockade. Last week, the U.S. Coast Guard took unprecedented action by seizing a Venezuelan tanker, with sources indicating more such interceptions may follow.

Venezuelan crude accounts for about 1% of global supply.

Bank of America analysts predict lower oil prices will constrain supply. If WTI averages $57 per barrel in 2026 as they forecast, U.S. shale output could decline by 70,000 barrels per day.