Betting on the "Strait of Hormuz of Memory Chips": A Fund's First-Half Gains Doubled, Then Dropped 40% in July, Trapping New Investors

Deep News08-07 15:54

The performance of the Guolian An Technology Innovation Fund has shown significant volatility since 2026. In the first half of the year, the fund doubled its returns by concentrating its holdings in the memory chip sector. However, as market sentiment shifted in July, the net asset value experienced a sharp decline, erasing most of the earlier gains.

Winning with Memory: First-Half Returns Exceed 100%, Fund Size Grows Nearly Fivefold

Looking back at the first half of the year, Pan Ming, the fund manager of Guolian An Technology Innovation, was undoubtedly a steadfast advocate in the TMT space. In his second-quarter report, he stated that within the AI development supply chain, "memory has become the Strait of Hormuz of the entire industry"—a judgment that precisely captured the core of his investment strategy. Based on this logic, Pan Ming increased the fund's stock allocation to 85.07%, focusing on memory chip and component leaders such as Shenzhen Demingli Optoelectronics Co Ltd, Biwin Storage Technology Co Ltd, and GigaDevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc. Under this allocation, the fund achieved a cumulative return of 107.47% in the first half of the year, doubling its performance. This profit-making effect quickly attracted a large influx of capital chasing hot trends. Fund shares surged from 168 million in the first quarter to 456 million by the end of the second quarter, while the fund's assets under management skyrocketed from 189 million yuan to 1.115 billion yuan, a nearly fivefold increase.

Losing with Memory: July Sees a 40% Decline, New Capital Mostly Trapped

However, when market winds suddenly reversed, this extreme overweight in a single sector quickly became an accelerator for net asset value declines. In July, as tech sentiment cooled and the memory chip sector experienced a deep correction, the fund's net asset value suffered a significant drop due to its high concentration of holdings. Data shows that the fund's interval return for July was -39.42%. This figure meant that the 107.47% return accumulated in the first half sharply contracted to 25.68% within just one month, with a loss of 81.79 percentage points of gains. This correction not only wiped out most of the paper profits but also exposed the fragility of a single-bet strategy. For investors who purchased shares near the fund's net asset value high in the second quarter, their holding costs were relatively elevated, and most faced varying degrees of paper losses. If an investor bought Guolian An Technology Innovation at the close on June 30 and held it until August 6, the interval loss would have reached 35%.

Long-Term Underperformance Against Benchmark, Weak Risk Resistance

From a longer-term perspective, the fund's net asset value has often lagged behind its performance benchmark. Despite achieving high returns in the first half of 2026, the actual returns for long-term holders of the fund have been unstable. Fund manager Pan Ming has long focused on the TMT track, with no significant drift in investment direction. This style provides strong offensive capability during industry upswings but shows insufficient resilience during sector adjustments or shifts in market sentiment. This extreme investment discipline acts as a sharp tool when the style aligns with market trends but becomes a shackle when it diverges. For fund investors, the line between "sticking with the track" and "clinging to single risk" still requires careful discernment.

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