On November 3, southbound capital recorded a net买入 of HK$23.42 billion, marking the highest level since the second half of the year and ending a streak of 14 consecutive trading days of net selling. The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all rose across the board.
In terms of specific targets, the top five net买入 targets of southbound capital were Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF, YOFC, and CNOOC. Among them, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong saw a net买入 of approximately HK$16.507 billion, accounting for 70% of the day's total net买入.
So, what positive signals does this reveal behind the scenes?
First, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong is the flagship ETF tracking the Hang Seng Index. On November 3, southbound capital net买入 approximately HK$16.5 billion, accounting for 70% of the day's total, indicating that the capital is not just picking individual stocks on a small scale, but directly anchoring the directional repair of "the entire Hong Kong stock market" with the highest efficiency. This is a typical "buy beta first, then discuss structure" aggressive position-building, conveying recognition of the overall valuation repair space for Hong Kong stocks.
In addition, policy signals from the central bank and the securities regulator regarding research and promotion of tools to support the capital market have been intensively released, which also catalyzed the strengthening of Hong Kong stocks. Industry insiders believe that with the completion of A-share third-quarter earnings disclosure and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, market uncertainties have somewhat decreased. It is expected that in November, Hong Kong stocks will be more influenced by mainland policies. As Hong Kong third-quarter earnings are gradually disclosed, earnings uncertainty is also expected to further decline.
At the same time, the expectation that Hong Kong stocks will stabilize first also injects confidence into the subsequent trend of A-shares. CICC stated that in the two typical market fluctuations over the past five years, Hong Kong stocks not only peaked earlier than A-shares, but often also established price bottoms earlier. This phenomenon is not a coincidence, but is jointly determined by the differences in industry structure, degree of capital openness, and capital behavior patterns between the two markets. The current low valuation, oversold sentiment, and dividend defense preference have built trading odds for a staged rebound in the market. However, to achieve a leap from an oversold rebound to a trend reversal, the fundamental driving force still depends on substantive fiscal policy efforts that effectively improve household balance sheets and drive the re-expansion of the credit impulse.
In other words, this round of HK$23.4 billion inflow is not just "seizing the repair" in broad-based ETFs—CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF also received large net买入, and YOFC and CNOOC also entered the top five, indicating that while using broad-based ETFs to anchor the market direction, capital is also positioning in technology, high dividends, and other directions. Once fiscal follow-through materializes, this round of inflow is expected to upgrade from a "repair-driven inflow" to the starting point of a "trend reversal."
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