Oil Stocks Decline as US-Iran Tensions Remain Unclear, Geopolitical Risk Premium Rapidly Fades

Oil stocks generally trended lower. At the time of writing, PETROCHINA (00857) fell 3.65% to HK$10.3; CHINA OILFIELD (02883) dropped 2.24% to HK$8.72; and CNOOC (00883) declined 1.93% to HK$26.46. On the news front, oil prices plunged approximately 12% in a single day last Friday after Iran announced the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, settling at around US$86.89 per barrel, a nearly five-week low. However, Iran subsequently announced the re-closure of the strait on Saturday, accompanied by reports of gunfire involving patrol boats, putting the market on high alert due to the uncertain situation. On the morning of April 20, international oil prices rebounded sharply, with WTI crude rising over 8% at one point during the session. Iran's First Vice President Aref stated that safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would not be guaranteed unless the U.S. lifted its maritime blockade against Iran. Some analysts believe the recent adjustment in oil and gas-related stocks is due to the complete erosion of the market premium previously driven by geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, rather than any fundamental deterioration in the industry. Analysis indicates that although the Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to normal transit, global crude supply has been effectively supplemented through capacity adjustments, reserve releases, and diversified oil transport channels. Both oil prices and sector valuations have fully priced in geopolitical disruptions, with market trading logic quickly shifting from short-term geopolitical speculation back to underlying fundamentals.