On October 30, international oil prices climbed toward six-month highs as the United States considers launching a renewed large-scale military operation against Iran, heightening market concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. As of 13:15 Beijing time on October 30, Brent crude futures rose 1.1% to $116.12 per barrel, having touched an intraday high of $117.84, the strongest level since late April. US WTI crude futures gained 0.8% to $103.01 per barrel. Both benchmarks are on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain, with monthly increases exceeding 10%.
US Military Leaders Brief Trump on Strike Plans as US-Iran Talks Remain Uncertain
On October 29, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, briefed Trump at the White House on military operation plans targeting Iran. Senior officials including US Defense Secretary Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Caine also attended the meeting, with discussions covering the ongoing US maritime blockade and the possibility of renewed large-scale military operations. A day earlier, relevant military officials also held talks with US Vice President Vance. According to people familiar with the matter, Cooper rarely travels to the White House in person to brief Trump, and the meeting may signal that the US is further advancing preparations for military action. In recent weeks, the US military has deployed additional air defense systems, ammunition, and other military supplies to the Middle East, and has withdrawn some troops from bases vulnerable to attack. Additionally, the US is sending an additional Patriot air defense missile system to Israel to strengthen its missile defense capabilities. Trump had previously hinted that the US might launch another military strike against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. However, the US is still pursuing the resumption of negotiations through diplomatic channels. Vance has recently been in contact with Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and mediators are also pushing for a new peace agreement framework, but Iran is reportedly have rejected a ceasefire proposal, and the prospect of reaching a deal in the short term remains unclear.
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Another Missile as US Crude Inventories Unexpectedly Decline
Middle Eastern energy facilities continue to face threats of attack, which also provides support for oil prices. Saudi Arabia said on October 29 that its air defense system intercepted another ballistic missile fired by Houthi forces toward the country's Eastern Province. Previously, Houthi forces had claimed to have attacked Saudi Arabia's largest refinery facility, the Ras Tanura refinery. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be affected by the conflict, security risks facing Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure have further intensified market concerns about disruptions to crude oil exports.
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