Gf Securities released a research report stating that recent prices in the white broiler industry chain have rebounded. Based on previous grandparent stock import volumes and chick sales, it is projected that industry supply will gradually improve in 2026, potentially leading to a recovery in the industry chain's prosperity. Furthermore, due to the impact of avian influenza outbreaks in France, overseas imports have been interrupted again, which may effectively support upstream breeding stock prices and maintain profitability. Considering that industry capacity adjustments, such as forced molting, remain significant factors disrupting normal supply rhythms, close attention should be paid to parent-generation chick sales. In recent years, breeding enterprises have accelerated upstream and downstream integration, with a clear trend towards full-industry-chain operations. The main views of Gf Securities are as follows:
In 2025, the white broiler industry maintained slim profits, and the trend of full-industry-chain integration became evident. Influenced by relatively ample supply and declining pork prices, live chicken prices and commercial-generation chick prices generally fluctuated at low levels throughout 2025, while parent-generation chick prices trended downward. In terms of profitability across segments, the upstream breeding stock segment performed better than downstream breeding and slaughtering. Parent-generation chick sales remained profitable for the entire year of 2025, whereas downstream breeding and slaughtering sectors were generally loss-making. In 2025, the industry's scale and intensification further increased, gradually entering a phase of slim profits. The industry continued to undergo deep integration, while breeding enterprises persistently advanced their transformation towards full-industry-chain operations. According to SCI Consulting, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered chickens by the top 10 enterprises in 2025 reached 4.274 billion birds, accounting for 46% of the market. Enterprises that previously invested in integrated industry chains are gradually highlighting their advantages, leveraging downstream channel strengths and synergies across various segments of the chain.
Avian influenza overseas has led to import interruptions, accelerating the substitution of domestic breeding stock. According to data from the Poultry Association and Boya Hexun, the cumulative update volume of domestic grandparent stock from January to December 2025 was 1.574 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Structurally, domestic self-breeding updates and imports from France accounted for approximately 60% and 40%, respectively. Regarding overseas imports, data from the ECDC indicates that France experienced outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in December 2025, leading to another interruption in overseas imports. The avian influenza epidemic has increased uncertainty in the supply of overseas breeding stock. Additionally, the substitution of domestic breeding stock varieties continues to accelerate. Domestic varieties are demonstrating advantages in disease resistance and adaptability, with overall breeding stock performance continuously improving and gradually catching up with foreign varieties. According to the Poultry Association, the combined update volume of three domestic grandparent stock varieties accounted for 33.6% of the total in 2025.
The industry chain is expected to see improved conditions in 2026, but capacity elasticity仍需关注. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the inventory of domestic grandparent stock in production has begun to decline sequentially. Excluding factors like molting and mortality, and based on previous grandparent stock import data, it is estimated that the year-on-year inventory of grandparent stock in production will decrease by approximately 3.3% and 12% in March and April 2026, respectively. Correspondingly, it is projected that the inventory of parent stock in production may begin to gradually decline after the first quarter of 2026. Following the normal production cycle, industry supply is expected to gradually improve in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, affected by avian influenza in France, the renewed interruption in overseas imports may effectively support upstream parent-generation chick prices. It is anticipated that the upstream breeding stock segment could maintain favorable conditions in 2026. From a full-year perspective, the overall supply in the white broiler industry chain is expected to gradually improve in 2026, with the breeding segment likely to achieve profitability. However, as industry capacity adjustment remains a significant factor disrupting normal supply rhythms, attention must still be paid to the supply uncertainty arising from capacity release elasticity.
Risk warnings include fluctuations in chicken prices, fluctuations in feed prices, epidemic risks, and food safety issues.
Comments