Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. has released a research report stating that the strong performance in the first three quarters has laid a solid foundation for achieving full-year targets, with the high growth trend in insurers' New Business Value (NBV) expected to continue into 2025. The strategic positioning of insurance funds entering the equity market continued to be upgraded in the second half of 2025, with both the scale and proportion of such investments rising rapidly. By the end of September 2025, the allocation scale and proportion of secondary market equity investments (stocks + securities investment funds) within the total insurance fund utilization balance reached 5.59 trillion yuan and 14.9% respectively, representing an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan and 2.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024. Given the increased proportion of insurance funds in the market and a heightened focus on growth stocks, market volatility is expected to exert some pressure on investment performance in the fourth quarter of 2025. The main views of Shenwan Hongyuan are as follows:
The net profit attributable to shareholders of A-share listed insurers in 2025 is forecasted to increase by 22.7% year-on-year to 426.4 billion yuan. Due to phased volatility in the capital market during Q4 2025, coupled with a significant increase in the proportion of secondary market equity allocations by some insurers in H2 2025, the profit performance of listed insurers in Q4 2025 may face temporary pressure. It is projected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of A-share listed insurers for the full year 2025 will grow by 22.7% year-on-year to 426.4 billion yuan, though this growth rate represents a deceleration of 10.9 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025. Breaking down by company, the forecasted net profit growth for 2025 is as follows: CHINA TAIPING (which has already issued a positive profit alert, with a projected year-on-year increase of 215%-225%), CHINA LIFE (+45.8% YoY), New China Life Insurance (+43.0% YoY), PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited (+27.9% YoY), China Pacific Insurance (+16.0% YoY), People's Insurance Company (Group) of China (+10.9% YoY), Sunshine Insurance (+9.7% YoY), and Ping An Insurance (+5.3% YoY).
The high-growth trend on the liability side for life insurance is expected to continue. The impressive results from the first three quarters have established a solid base for achieving the annual targets, and the strong NBV growth momentum is anticipated to persist through 2025. By company, the projected NBV growth rates for 2025 are: PICC Life (+60.2% YoY), Sunshine Insurance (+49.9% YoY), New China Life Insurance (+46.9% YoY), Ping An Insurance (+39.8% YoY), CHINA LIFE (+35.3% YoY), and China Pacific Insurance (+27.8% YoY).
Typhoon "Maysak" in Q4 2025 may temporarily affect the Combined Ratio (COR) performance. According to data disclosed by the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the original premium income for property and casualty insurance companies in 2025 increased by 3.9% year-on-year to 1.76 trillion yuan, while claim payouts rose by 1.6% YoY to 1.17 trillion yuan. Specifically, in Q4 2025, premiums saw a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year to 385.8 billion yuan, while claim payouts grew by 3.5% YoY to 349.4 billion yuan. In October 2025, Typhoon Maysak caused direct economic losses of 15.02 billion yuan, contributing to a total direct economic loss from major catastrophes for the month that surged 5424% year-on-year to 248.58 billion yuan, which may temporarily impact the COR. By company, the projected CORs for 2025 are: PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited at 97.0% (down 1.8 ppts YoY), Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance at 97.4% (down 0.9 ppts YoY), and China Pacific Property Insurance at 97.8% (down 0.8 ppts YoY).
The trend of "insurance funds entering the market" continues, with Q4 2025 capital market volatility expected to temporarily impact investment performance. The strategic focus on insurance capital market participation was further upgraded in H2 2025, leading to a rapid increase in both the scale and proportion of such investments. By the end of September 2025, the allocation to secondary market equities within the insurance fund utilization balance reached 5.59 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.9%, up by 1.49 trillion yuan and 2.6 percentage points from the end of 2024. In Q4 2025, the performance of major indices was mixed: the CSI 300 fell 0.23%, the CSI 800 rose 0.02%, the CSI Dividend Index gained 0.79%, the STAR 50 Index dropped 10.10%, and the Hang Seng Index declined 4.56%. Against the backdrop of increasing insurance fund market participation and a growing focus on growth stocks, market volatility is anticipated to create some pressure on investment performance in Q4 2025.
Investment Analysis Opinion: On the liability side, full-year NBV growth is expected to be robust. In the absence of a significant shift of deposits into other investments, bancassurance channel growth has been impressive, and the market acceptance of participating insurance products has notably improved, indicating substantial potential for future growth. On the asset side, with the continued entry of insurance funds into the market and a temporary stabilization of long-term interest rates, concerns over interest spread losses are expected to ease further. The report maintains recommendations for CHINA LIFE, New China Life Insurance, Ping An Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited, and People's Insurance Company (Group) of China, and suggests monitoring CHINA TAIPING and ZA ONLINE.
Risk warnings include a decline in long-term interest rates, volatility in the equity market, frequent occurrences of major catastrophes, and potential impacts from regulatory policies exceeding expectations.
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