At the opening of the domestic futures market today, the metals sector showed broad-based strength.
Within this, the precious metals segment led the gains. At the time of writing, the main Shanghai Gold 2608 contract was up over 4%, while the main Shanghai Silver 2608 contract surged more than 8%. Platinum and palladium futures also rose nearly 3%.
In the non-ferrous metals category, Shanghai Tin was the strongest performer, gaining close to 5%. Other metals including Shanghai Copper, Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Nickel, and Shanghai Zinc also registered varying degrees of increase.
However, following renewed reports of explosions in the Middle East, international gold and silver prices retreated sharply, paring their earlier gains. According to reports from Lebanon on the 15th, an enemy drone attacked a vehicle in the Lebanese village of Tebnine, resulting in casualties. Additionally, areas including Tebnine village were subjected to enemy artillery fire.
As of the latest update, London Gold was up 2.07% at $4,304.18 per ounce, while London Silver had gained 2.91% to $69.94 per ounce.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, metal prices accelerated their ascent, repeatedly setting new historical highs in an epic rally. Since the beginning of this year, particularly following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, inflation worries and expectations of interest rate hikes have persistently weighed on metal prices. The current significant shift in the Middle East situation raises the question of whether the metals market has been "unsealed" and is poised for a new wave of upward momentum.
Commenting on this, Token Cat Ltd Chief Analyst Gu Fengda stated that the primary reason for today's rebound in the metals sector is the peace agreement reached between the US and Iran, which led to a rapid decline in geopolitical risk premiums and a marked improvement in market risk appetite. It is noteworthy that Iran and the US plan to formally sign the memorandum of understanding text regarding "ending war negotiations" on June 19, during which period the Middle East situation remains subject to significant uncertainty.
Gu Fengda cautioned that, given the frequent volatility in the Middle East situation, geopolitical risks have not been truly eliminated. Furthermore, the macro environment for the metals market has not fundamentally improved. With the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting approaching, any "hawkish" signals released could pressure the sustainability of the rebound in gold and silver prices.
Shenwan Futures Research Institute non-ferrous metals analyst Li Ye holds a different view, believing the price floor for precious metals has a foundation for sustained upward movement. He cites the elevated global geopolitical risk environment, the ongoing restructuring of political and economic orders, intensifying US fiscal pressures, the continued progression of de-dollarization, and the trend of global central banks increasing their gold reserves. It is important to note that silver, platinum, and palladium possess both financial and industrial attributes; while they follow the broader precious metals trend, they also rely on the support of industrial demand.
For the non-ferrous metals sector, beyond the repair of market sentiment, fundamentals also play a role. Gu Fengda indicated that while copper prices are buoyed by positive geopolitical developments, support from the industrial side remains solid. Currently, copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) have fallen into negative territory, the tight supply situation at the mine end persists, domestic refined copper inventories continue to draw down, and LME copper inventories are also on a declining trend. Even if the Middle East situation ultimately eases, the core logic of "resource scarcity" in the copper market will not fundamentally change.
The aluminum market presents a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. "On one hand, improved risk appetite is driving the rebound in aluminum prices; on the other hand, if navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz are resolved, the tight supply of raw materials is expected to improve, and some previously forced production shutdowns could potentially resume, which would then exert some pressure on aluminum prices," Gu Fengda said.
Regarding the zinc market, Li Ye stated that zinc concentrate treatment charges remain at low levels. Although raw material supply is periodically tight, smelting output continues to grow. On the demand side, while galvanized sheet inventories have declined somewhat, overall inventory levels remain high, primarily dragged down by weak demand from the real estate sector. However, infrastructure investment growth has picked up, leading to expectations that zinc prices will exhibit strong, range-bound movement in the near term. Subsequent focus should be on the US dollar's trajectory, smelting output, and changes in terminal demand.
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