According to a joint survey by the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation's Bulk Commodity Circulation Branch and Shanghai Ganglian, the July 2026 China Bulk Commodity Price Index (CBPI) stood at 128.6 points, down 1.3% from the previous month but up 15.5% year-on-year. Based on the index's performance, the decline was driven by falling international crude oil prices, seasonal factors, and extreme weather events like strong typhoons. However, the year-on-year increase remains significant, indicating that the bulk commodity market's fundamentals are generally stable.
Amid complex and changing international circumstances, global economic growth is slowing overall, and effective demand in some domestic industries is insufficient. Yet, new growth drivers continue to expand, companies remain cautiously optimistic about the future, and the long-term positive trend of the bulk commodity market remains unchanged. With the government's macro policies gaining traction, counter-cyclical adjustments intensifying, and the impact of extreme weather receding, the overall sentiment in the bulk commodity market is expected to gradually recover, likely maintaining a stable and positive operating trend.
By industry: The energy price index rose, reaching 107.7 points, up 2.4% month-on-month and 11.4% year-on-year. The agricultural product price index saw a slight rebound to 95.5 points, up 0.1% month-on-month but down 2.4% year-on-year. The non-ferrous metals price index continued to decline, hitting 159.2 points, down 1.1% month-on-month but up 22.4% year-on-year. The mineral price index extended its downturn to 67.5 points, down 1.5% month-on-month and 5.8% year-on-year. The ferrous metals price index edged lower to 80.9 points, down 1.6% month-on-month but up 3.8% year-on-year. The chemical price index plummeted to 115.9 points, down 5.7% month-on-month but up 12.7% year-on-year.
By commodity: Among the 50 bulk commodities closely monitored by the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, compared to the previous month, 14 (28%) saw price increases, 35 (70%) experienced declines, and 1 (2%) remained flat. The top three gainers for the month were coke, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and corrugated paper, with month-on-month increases of 7.1%, 6.4%, and 5.6%, respectively. The top three losers were methanol, paraxylene, and lithium carbonate, with month-on-month declines of 13.3%, 8.1%, and 7.3%, respectively.
From a comparison of domestic and international indices: The CBPI trend was consistent with June's CPI and PPI. In June, the PPI fell 0.3% month-on-month, with both producer goods and consumer goods prices declining by 0.3%. The CPI also dropped 0.3% month-on-month, with food prices down 0.4% and non-food prices down 0.3%. The CBPI aligned with the trends of the CRB and S&P GSCI, though its decline was significantly smaller than in international markets. The US-Iran conflict and navigation risks in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up international oil prices, increasing volatility in commodity prices. The US announced that starting July 24, it would impose tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 economies, including China, under Section 301, disrupting the global bulk commodity market. The United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization have warned that the current El Niño phenomenon is intensifying and could potentially become the strongest climate event in 150 years.
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