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Limited seats, first come first served. Let us embark together on the journey of sustainability! [Click to register] Protein meal: (Hou Xueling, practitioner qualification number: F3048706; trading advisory qualification number: Z0013637) On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans fell for a third consecutive day as U.S. soybean harvest progress beat expectations. U.S. soybean meal rose, while U.S. soybean oil fell. The Department of Agriculture announced that private exporters sold 470,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in 2026/27. NOPA expects September soybean crush volume may fall to the lowest level in a year, with Thursday's data release in focus. Domestically, protein meal was mostly rangebound. Domestic soybean arrivals remain at a high level, oil mills have resumed operations, and soybean meal may return to a stockbuilding trend. Rapeseed meal performed stronger than soybean meal because imported rapeseed stocks continued to decline and imported rapeseed meal inventories fell back. Domestic soybean meal supply is ample, while cost-strengthening expectations are high, so pay attention to capital dynamics.
Oils and fats: (Hou Xueling, practitioner qualification number: F3048706; trading advisory qualification number: Z0013637) On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose for a third consecutive trading day, supported by stronger crude oil and gains in surrounding markets. MPOB lowered its November crude palm oil reference price, but kept the export tax at 10%. U.S. soybean oil fell as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike increased, risk appetite declined, and U.S. financial assets broadly dropped. Canadian rapeseed fell, but outperformed U.S. soybean meal. Concerns about the Canadian rapeseed harvest and a weaker Canadian dollar provided support. Domestically, oils and fats futures generally rose, with palm oil gaining more than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Bearish international reports were gradually priced in, and higher crude oil prices and other factors pushed domestic prices higher. However, overnight expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike increased, risk appetite declined, and overseas assets fell, which is bearish for today's market. Pay attention to changes in macroeconomic policy and continue to monitor the evolution of themes such as geopolitical conflicts and the digestion of high spot inventories.
Live hogs: (Wang Na, practitioner qualification number: F0243534; trading advisory qualification number: Z0001262) On Wednesday, live hogs continued to fall, futures prices hit new lows, and the bearish atmosphere became stronger. September hog slaughter continued to increase, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand continued to pressure the live hog market. In the spot market, national hog prices were steady to lower. Hog prices in most regions of the country remained weak. Supply has gradually increased, consumption performance has been mediocre, slaughtering enterprises have become cautious in purchasing, year-on-year growth is limited, and the momentum for hog price rebounds is insufficient, with low-level fluctuations dominating. Today, the average slaughter price of external three-way standard hogs in the Shandong market was 10.00 yuan/kg, stable versus yesterday's price; mainstream quotes for 110-130 standard hogs were 10.00-10.00 yuan/kg, and mainstream quotes for 150 kg hogs were around 11.3 yuan/kg. The transaction price for 7 kg piglets (three-way) from large farms (three-way) was 100 yuan/head. Overall, after the National Day holiday, the supply side of the live hog market continued to gain weight, hog prices came under pressure and adjusted, and the pattern of strong expectations and weak reality remained unchanged, restraining hog price upside.
Eggs: (Kong Hailan, practitioner qualification number: F3032578; trading advisory qualification number: Z0013544) On Wednesday, egg futures prices continued to decline, with the main 2612 contract falling continuously during the session. As of the close, the daily decline was 4.09%, settling at 3,426 yuan/500 kg, and open interest fell somewhat late in the session. On the spot side, data from Zhuochuang showed that yesterday's national egg price was 3.85 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 3.65 yuan/jin, and Heishan brown-shell eggs were 3.7 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in sales areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 3.96 yuan/jin, and Guangzhou brown-shell eggs were 4.35 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. As spot prices continued to pull back, the short-term fundamentals tended to stabilize, and spot prices stopped falling and stabilized. Futures continued to decline; pay attention to the impact on market sentiment after spot prices stabilize.
Corn: (Wang Na, practitioner qualification number: F0243534; trading advisory qualification number: Z0001262) On Wednesday, corn futures prices fluctuated and adjusted, with prices rising then falling during the session and closing with a small bearish candle. At the start of the week, corn rose on reduced open interest, with open interest in the main 2611 contract continuously declining, limited position increases in the far-month 2701 contract, and total weighted contract open interest falling. Recently, corn futures prices stabilized at round-number levels and fluctuated upward. New grain market arrivals in Northeast China continued to increase. Deep-processing enterprise purchase prices continued to be lowered, downstream enterprises purchased cautiously, and the overall pattern showed strong supply and weak demand. The autumn harvest of corn in North China has entered its final stage, with overall harvest progress near 80%. On the supply side, new grain continues to come to market, but is noticeably lower year-on-year than last year; the quality of new grain in North China is better than in previous years, prices remain at low levels, farmers' reluctance to sell is gradually emerging, and the overall decline has slowed somewhat. On the demand side, arrivals at deep-processing enterprises have fluctuated greatly, downstream purchasing has maintained a rigid-demand pace, and there is no obvious signal of a significant increase in volume yet. Quotes in corn sales areas were generally stable, with some slight fluctuations. Origin conditions and futures trends will affect sentiment in sales areas. At present, downstream enterprises' willingness to purchase new corn has strengthened, and they are comparing the quality and prices of new grain in multiple regions and purchasing as needed. Overall, corn harvesting in North China is basically complete, while corn in Northeast China has not yet been harvested and brought to market on a large scale. After the concentrated supply pressure in North China is realized, the phased supply pressure has eased somewhat, and corn futures and spot quotes have requirements to stabilize and rebound. Technically, the January corn contract should focus on price performance in the short-term resistance range of 2220-2250, and be alert to the possibility of futures prices coming under pressure and falling again. Disclaimer: The information in this report is all derived from public sources. Our company makes no guarantee as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of such information, nor does it guarantee that the information and suggestions contained herein will not change. We have strived to make the report objective and fair, but the views, conclusions, and suggestions herein are for reference only and do not constitute recommendations for any specific products or businesses or the basis and suggestions for operations in related varieties. Investors who make investment decisions based on this report shall bear their own profits and losses, and this is unrelated to our company and the authors. Sina cooperative platform Everbright Futures account opening: safe, fast, and guaranteed.
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