April 3 - Last trading session, Thursday (April 2): International gold encountered resistance, fell back, and closed lower. Former President Trump's national address did not convince the market that the war would end soon or that the Strait of Hormuz issue would be resolved. Instead, it intensified conflicts, stating that heavy strikes against Iran would continue over the next two to three weeks. This boosted crude oil and the US dollar significantly, pressuring gold prices to plunge nearly 250 dollars at one point. However, prices eventually bottomed out and recovered. During the US trading session, Iran announced it was drafting a transit agreement for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, easing inflation concerns. Consequently, gold still closed above the 100-day moving average, suggesting bulls retain some advantage, with expectations for further bullish rebounds in the future.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened at $4757.97 per ounce in the Asian session, initially strengthening to record an intraday high of $4800.19. It then met resistance, turned lower, and experienced consecutive sharp declines, recording an intraday low of $4553.93 around 14:00. Subsequently, the decline halted, and prices oscillated higher overall, finally closing at $4668.84 by the end of the US session. The daily trading range was $246.26, with a closing decline of $89.13, or 1.87%.
Looking ahead to today, Friday (April 3): The international gold market is closed for Good Friday, with no price movements. Trading will resume normally next Monday. Regarding the impact of the US March non-farm payrolls data due later, based on the already released ADP and weekly initial jobless claims data—although both were lower than previous values, they were better than expectations—the non-farm payrolls data is likely to turn positive, which would be bearish for gold. However, as the March average hourly earnings year-over-year and month-over-month figures decreased overall, this could be bullish for gold. Therefore, the net impact is expected to result in predominantly sideways movement. Consequently, upon the market opening next Monday, gold prices are anticipated to either continue oscillating or extend their recovery rebound. In the short term, there is still potential to touch the $4840 or $5000 levels.
Fundamentally, although the US-Iran situation remains unresolved with no ceasefire, and the unpredictability of the former President continues to sustain geopolitical risks, Iran's move to draft a transit agreement for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, involving charging tolls for vessels passing through, shifts market sentiment. The perception is that while hostilities may not cease, transit will be possible. Thus, on one hand, the market will continue to harbor safe-haven demand. On the other hand, the ability to transit suggests energy supply concerns are alleviated, reducing worries about demand disruption. However, the associated costs will increase expenses. Consequently, oil prices are expected to remain elevated and volatile—not in a sustained uptrend but also unlikely to fall sharply. Therefore, inflation is also expected to persist at high levels. Iran effectively gains a "real-time adjustment power" over global inflation, though it is believed this influence will be limited, primarily altering future benchmarks and thresholds for inflation. For the United States, accepting the agreement and resuming transit could be perceived as a retreat of hegemony; refusing would likely necessitate military action to secure passage. Furthermore, other oil-producing countries would inevitably accelerate building pipelines to bypass the Strait, among other measures. Hence, the situation remains unstable, the market retains high volatility, and cautious trading is still advised. However, the view is that the gold market typically prices in expectations. The previous sharp rise in oil prices, rising inflation, and the resultant Fed rate hike expectations had already been factored in, with the lowest dip testing the $4100 level arguably representing the worst-case scenario. Currently, although conflict persists, the Strait's transit situation appears manageable, suggesting future inflation might be controllable. In this context, the ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to shift focus towards gold's safe-haven appeal. Additionally, Fed Chair Powell indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding the war's impact on the economy and inflation, temporarily ruling out rate hikes. Fed Governor Miler also suggested the Fed could gradually lower rates by one percentage point over a year. This brings market attention back to potential rate cuts. Therefore, regardless of whether the geopolitical situation concludes or not, the market is expected to refocus on the Fed's eventual easing cycle, alongside structural supportive factors like central bank gold buying and de-dollarization. Consequently, the perspective remains that this recent decline in gold prices is merely a mid-cycle correction within a larger upward trend. Gold prices are expected to potentially climb again and reach new highs within the next year.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold concluded March above its rising trendline, maintaining its bullish outlook. The current month's opening also remains above this trendline. As long as prices do not close below this trendline support, the prospect of new highs remains. On the weekly chart, gold continued last week's pattern of finding a bottom and rebounding, extending its recovery momentum and moving higher this week. Although it has not yet decisively broken above and held the resistance posed by the 5 and 10-week moving averages to signal stronger strength, the bullish alignment of longer-term moving averages below and the Z-Z indicator not yet signaling a top for the current rebound suggest the overall direction remains upward. A key resistance level to watch is the 10-week moving average; a break above this could pave the way for new highs. On the daily chart, although gold experienced a significant pullback from resistance on Thursday, it ultimately rebounded from its lows to close above the 100-day moving average. The Z-Z indicator does not show the rebound has peaked, and auxiliary indicators continue to develop bullish signals, hinting at further potential upside. Support levels to watch include the 100-day moving average or the 5 and 10-day moving averages, with a primary bullish bias maintained, anticipating targets around $4900 or $5100. For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information. Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are provided below; exact entry and exit points should be confirmed via live account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4620 or $4530; Resistance levels are around $4845 or $4910. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $72.10 or $71.00; Resistance levels are around $76.60 or $78.40.
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