As AI begins to devour cash flow, the world's richest man—Elon Musk—is being forced into a "restructuring mode" for his business empire.
On January 31, Bloomberg reported that as the costs of artificial intelligence investments continue to climb, Elon Musk is re-evaluating the capital structures of his portfolio companies. Discussions surrounding a SpaceX IPO or a merger with Tesla or xAI are evolving from "possibilities" into tangible options.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Musk enthusiastically discussed humanoid robots, reversing aging, and even launching solar-powered data centers into space. However, the fundamental question remains: where will the funding for these grand visions come from?
The insatiable cash demands of AI are the primary catalyst for this wave of structural adjustments.
The direct driver of this round of restructuring is that the financial requirements for AI have surpassed what any single company can bear.
xAI is currently burning through cash at a rate of approximately $1 billion per month. Financial documents reveal that the company reported a net loss of $14.6 billion in the third quarter of last year, with cash expenditures reaching $78 billion over the first nine months.
Even after completing several large-scale funding rounds, this rate of cash burn continues to amplify the pressure.
Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments, commented:
"This wasn't the plan written 20 years ago, but AI is pulling all the businesses closer together."
Beyond model research and development, infrastructure construction is the real cash-devouring behemoth. Last year, xAI informed investors it would need at least $180 billion to build data centers, but that figure now appears conservative.
By comparison, OpenAI plans to invest over $1.4 trillion in infrastructure in the coming years, while Meta has committed to $600 billion in investments by 2028.
The discussions around a SpaceX IPO and potential mergers are, at their core, about "cash flow consolidation."
To fill this massive funding gap, Musk is turning his attention to his most profitable asset—SpaceX.
Market sources indicate that SpaceX is exploring an IPO as early as June this year, targeting a valuation of up to $1.5 trillion. The fundraising规模 could reach $50 billion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history.
This is not just about financing rockets; it is also about funding Musk's ambitious vision of "launching solar-powered data centers into space."
Even more radical proposals are under consideration: SpaceX could potentially merge with Tesla, or with xAI. There are even rumors of a form of "grand unification" that would bring energy, manufacturing, satellites, and rocket launches under one roof.
Musk himself wrote on X:
"Surprisingly, my companies are converging."
Joseph Alagna, Founding Partner of Buttonwood Funds, pointed out: "The market's appetite for AI companies right now is insatiable. You will see these companies start to access capital more cheaply through public markets."
Despite xAI's current valuation of approximately $230 billion, analysts note that its ability to raise further funds is becoming more challenging.
According to estimates by intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh, xAI's cash burn could reach as high as $11 billion in 2025. In contrast, the valuation increases for Anthropic and OpenAI rely more on revenue growth acceleration rather than单纯的规模扩张.
This makes merging with or acquiring assets that have more robust cash flows a practical option.
In this grand narrative, Tesla's role is becoming increasingly微妙 and precarious.
Historically, Tesla was often viewed as the "cash safety net" within Musk's ecosystem. But that role is diminishing.
Although Tesla still holds $44 billion in cash on its balance sheet, its core automotive business has seen sales decline for two consecutive years. The company announced this week that it will invest $2 billion in xAI and plans to double its capital expenditures.
Wall Street is viewing this with caution. Analysts at Evercore ISI predict that due to massive investments in AI infrastructure, Tesla could face a cash flow deficit of $5 to $7 billion in 2026.
Wall Street's attitude towards this "capital stew" is deeply divided.
Institutional investors普遍 worry that financial entanglements will introduce significant risks. Dec Mullarkey, Managing Director at SLC Management, noted that investors prefer companies with clear strategies and easily trackable performance, rather than a "hodgepodge" that requires deep digging to understand.
However, retail investors are cheering. For many loyal Tesla supporters, a merger意味着 the Tesla shares they hold would become a ticket to gaining exposure to SpaceX and xAI.
Alexandra Merz, a Tesla shareholder who manages an X account with 220,000 followers, stated: "This finally gives retail shareholders of Tesla, the only publicly traded company, the right to participate in the growth of the other two giants."
Regardless of the final transaction structure, the direction is set: Tesla and SpaceX are feeling a powerful gravitational pull, being drawn towards an industrial complex centered around xAI.
Comments