After experiencing a rare and sharp market correction in the previous trading session, international gold prices staged a technical rebound during Tuesday's Asian trading hours, partially recovering prior losses.
However, overall market sentiment remains cautious, with long-position capital entering the market at a slow pace, reflecting investors' ongoing concerns about the short-term environment. From a macroeconomic perspective, monetary policy expectations have become a significant factor constraining gold prices.
The nomination of Kevin Warsh by the U.S. President for the next Federal Reserve Chair has led market judgments about future policy stances to lean distinctly towards caution, even a hawkish bias. Investors widely anticipate that the new Chair may favor maintaining higher interest rate levels and further shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.
This policy orientation typically benefits the U.S. dollar's performance but diminishes the appeal of gold, which offers no interest yield. Concurrently, changes in market liquidity conditions have intensified short-term selling pressure.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's increase in margin requirements for gold and silver has forced some highly leveraged traders to liquidate positions passively to meet funding needs. This type of technical deleveraging has amplified price volatility in the short term and also acted as a drag on the gold price rebound.
Regarding geopolitics, uncertainty continues to provide underlying support for gold prices. Diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran may occur later this week, but the situation remains subject to potential reversals.
The market is closely monitoring the progress of negotiations; any renewed escalation in tensions could potentially drive safe-haven flows back into the gold market. Overall, gold prices are currently in a sensitive phase intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, where fundamental and policy expectations exert a stronger influence on price action than safe-haven sentiment alone.
Looking at the daily chart, gold experienced a sharp pullback following its previous rapid ascent, with volatility significantly expanding, indicating a concentrated release of profit-taking at high levels. Although the price has recovered from its lows, it remains below prior peaks, suggesting the market has not yet fully digested the previous upward rally.
The daily structure indicates that gold has entered a corrective rebound phase after the sharp decline, with shorter K-line bodies and longer shadows, reflecting intensified disagreement between bulls and bears. The price has temporarily stabilized around the $4800 level, which has become a crucial defensive position for short-term bulls; its stability will directly impact the subsequent pace of movement.
From a trend perspective, short-term moving averages show signs of turning but have not yet formed a clear downward alignment, indicating the current market behavior is more characteristic of high-level consolidation rather than a definitive shift to a bearish trend. If the price can consolidate sustainably above $4800, it would help alleviate short-term selling pressure and accumulate conditions for a subsequent directional move.
On the upside, the $4850–$4900 range constitutes significant technical resistance. This zone is not only the starting point of the previous accelerated decline but also corresponds to a key daily-chart resistance band. Until this range is convincingly broken, any rebound in gold prices is more likely to be viewed as a technical correction within the adjustment process.
On the downside, if the $4800 level is breached, the price may retest the previous low area, and short-term volatility risks would correspondingly amplify. Overall, the daily structure of gold exhibits characteristics of wide-range, high-level volatility with a direction that remains unclear; short-term price action still requires new fundamental catalysts for guidance.
Editor's View: The core conflict in the current gold market lies in the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and monetary policy expectations. Although geopolitical uncertainty provides a floor for gold prices, the hawkish Fed expectations and the tendency for a stronger U.S. dollar are capping the rebound potential for gold.
From a strategic perspective, it is inadvisable to hold overly high expectations for a one-sided trend in the short term. A more reasonable assessment is that gold prices will maintain a high-level consolidation pattern. Only if policy expectations show a clear shift, or if geopolitical risks escalate substantially, might gold regain sustained upward momentum.
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