According to a recent forecast report from the prominent UK think tank Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), the ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East is severely impacting oil supply from the Persian Gulf region. It is projected that by the end of this year, the total loss of oil supply in this region could exceed 2 billion barrels.
Speaking at the S&P Global Middle East Oil and Gas Conference in London, the institute's director, Bassam Fattouh, highlighted that the disruptive effects of the Middle East conflicts on global energy supply chains are accelerating, based on the institute's benchmark reference scenario model. He emphasized that, given the current extremely weak buffer mechanisms and emergency response capabilities within the global oil supply and demand system, the international energy market will face significant stability challenges when confronted with a supply gap of this magnitude.
Industry analysts note that, as the world's most critical crude oil production region, a substantial reduction in supply from the Persian Gulf will directly intensify expectations of tightening in global energy supply. This situation is likely to have profound implications for the international crude oil pricing system and the process of global economic recovery in the coming period.
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