Industrial Securities Co.,Ltd. has released a research report indicating that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is accelerating the global energy transition, creating sustained positive conditions for the marine engineering and auto shipping sectors. To reduce their dependence on Middle Eastern oil and gas, nations are speeding up their independent offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore wind power development. Simultaneously, high oil prices are prompting a faster shift to electric road transport, positioning marine engineering and car shipping as high-growth areas within the shipping industry.
Where to focus
Heavy-lift and multi-purpose vessels benefit from stable general cargo demand, flexibility from marine engineering needs, and the anticipated removal of aging fleets. Semi-submersible ships are scarce and have high barriers to entry. Car carriers are benefiting from the rise in electric vehicle trade and China's growing export share, with a clear expectation of tightened supply.
Marine Engineering: The Core Driver of the Energy Supply Transition
Marine engineering encompasses three main segments: offshore oil and gas projects, offshore renewable energy projects, and marine infrastructure projects, with specialized vessels playing a central role. Since 2020, the industry has entered a second upward cycle driven by new energy, with demand gradually decoupling from oil price fluctuations. Looking ahead, China's "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" requires offshore wind power capacity to reach over 100 GW by 2030 (requiring an average annual completion of 10.6 GW). Europe's demand for wind power equipment imports from 2026 to 2030 is 20.2 GW annually, both necessitating the involvement of marine engineering vessels for transportation.
Regarding specific vessel types, heavy-lift and multi-purpose ships are the mainstays of marine engineering transport. Since 2022, their charter rates have shown a significantly larger premium over container ships and bulk carriers, detaching from the traditional shipping cycle demand side. General cargo (containers, breakbulk) provides a stable demand base, while the transport of marine engineering equipment (such as wind turbine blades and towers) is a new source of growth. The supply side is tight: vessels over 15 years old account for 64% of the fleet, and those over 20 years old account for 35%, figures much higher than for mainstream vessel types. Although the order book has grown to 6.29 million deadweight tons, this represents only 18.8% of the fleet, lower than the proportion of vessels over 20 years old (35%). Furthermore, berths occupied by container ships and oil tankers will prevent the delivery of new orders before 2029, making it difficult for new capacity in the next three years to offset the removal of aging vessels.
Key Reasons for Focusing on Semi-Submersible Ships
Semi-submersible vessels serve dual functions as both "super carriers" and "installation platforms," handling the transport and float-over installation of large marine equipment such as drilling rigs, wind turbine foundations, and immersed tube tunnels. There are only 61 vessels globally, totaling 2.815 million deadweight tons. Vessels over 20 years old account for 43% of this fleet, with those over 30 years reaching 30%, indicating significant potential for supply reduction. In contrast, the order book contains only 3 vessels (7.4% of current capacity), insufficient to cover the capacity that will be phased out. The semi-submersible market is highly concentrated: two leading companies, COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers and Boskalis, together hold a 54.5% share. Entry barriers are high, and Chinese operators have established a strong foothold, positioning them for potential excess returns.
Auto Shipping: Entering Another Upward Cycle Driven by Electrification
From 2020 to 2025, global seaborne automobile trade volume grew from 16.76 million to 26.51 million vehicles (a CAGR of 9.6%). Within this, the trade volume of electric vehicles grew at a CAGR of 28.2%, raising its share to 22%. China's automobile exports surged from 990,000 to 7.06 million vehicles (a CAGR of 48.0%), contributing 57.9% of the global increase in automobile trade. The dual trends of "oil-to-electric" conversion and emerging market demand are expected to drive long-term expansion in the automobile trade. Car carrier charter rates rebounded to $80,000 per day in July 2026, showing significant elasticity. The fleet composition shows that ships over 15 years old account for 57%, and those over 20 years old account for 26%. The peak delivery period was in 2025, and the current order book stands at only 20.63%. High shipbuilding prices and long lead times have locked in limited new supply until 2029. In terms of competitive landscape, Japanese and Korean shipowners occupy the top four spots (44.8% share), with the top 10 holding a 75.7% share. The share of Chinese shipowners remains inconspicuous, which is inconsistent with China's status as a major automobile exporter. Under the logic of "national cars shipped by national fleets," there is significant room for growth.
Risk Alert
Risks include market environment fluctuations, transportation operational challenges, and profit volatility due to oil price changes.
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