CMSC has released a research report noting that the two-wheeler and specialty vehicle industry is at a strategic juncture of industrial transformation and global competition. Currently, the three major tracks of motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), and electric bicycles are all benefiting from export growth and product structure upgrading — large-displacement motorcycles, premiumization of ATVs, and the electrification/intelligentization of electric two-wheelers. The industry is gradually moving from "scale expansion" toward "high-quality growth," and investors are advised to pay attention to related investment opportunities in the sector.
Motorcycle Industry: Domestic Structural Upgrading, Rising Overseas Share, Industry Moving from "Scale Expansion" to "High-Quality Growth"
Industry structural upgrading: Motorcycle consumption is shifting from traditional commuting needs toward leisure, entertainment, and high-quality consumption, driving rapid sales growth in the large-displacement market. In 2025, sales of models above 250cc reached 952,000 units, up 25.9% year-on-year, with models above 500cc seeing sales surge 107.6% year-on-year, becoming the fastest-growing segment in the industry. Compared with mature markets in Europe and the US, China's penetration rate of medium-to-large displacement motorcycles still lags considerably, leaving substantial room for improvement in both domestic sales and export penetration of large-displacement models.
Strong export momentum: The industry's growth driver is gradually shifting from domestic demand to export demand. According to data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Motorcycle, in 2025 China exported 13.366 million complete motorcycles, up 21.3% year-on-year, with export value reaching US$8.85 billion, up 26.78% year-on-year — a five-year high in export scale. Overseas sales as a share of total industry sales has risen to 60.8%. Large-displacement exports have been particularly impressive: from 2023 to 2025, exports of 250cc+ models were 198,000, 359,000, and 535,000 units respectively, up 54.9%, 81.3%, and 49.0% year-on-year. The export market is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value enhancement."
Deep moats for leading players: In 2025, the CR3 for fuel/electric/large-displacement (500cc+) motorcycles stood at 29%, 56%, and 85% respectively, with leading companies enjoying clear advantages.
All-Terrain Vehicle Industry: A Specialty Vehicle Track Combining Entertainment and Practicality, with a Typical Export-Oriented Profile
ATVs represent a specialty vehicle segment that combines both recreational and practical attributes, and is a typically export-oriented industry, with over 90% of domestic products sold overseas. Chinese manufacturers are rapidly capturing market share by leveraging their high cost-performance advantages. The investment logic revolves around two main themes:
Product premiumization and upgrading: From 2021 to 2025, export volume CAGR was approximately 1.7%, but export value CAGR reached 11.6%. Against the backdrop of export volume consolidating at high levels, export value has continued to surge, fully confirming that domestic vehicle manufacturers are continuously optimizing their product mix and accelerating their push into high-value-added models such as UTVs and SSVs.
Highly concentrated leader share: The industry exhibits a clear "one superpower, multiple strong players" characteristic. CFMOTO, Taotao Vehicle, and Chongqing Runtong together account for 73.6% of national export volume and 82.5% of export value. Among them, CFMOTO alone holds 74.0% of national export value, ranking first nationwide for multiple consecutive years.
Electric Two-Wheeler Industry: Investment Logic Centers on "Short-Term New National Standard Reshaping the Landscape, Medium-Term Intelligentization and Premiumization Concentration, Long-Term Second Growth Curve"
New national standard accelerates industry consolidation: The new national standard comprehensively raises requirements for three-electric technology, intelligent features, and compliant production, accelerating the elimination of backward capacity. In 2025, the CR3 in the domestic market reached 56.6%. Traditional brands (Yadea/Aima) maintain advantages in the mass price band through channels and supply chains; intelligent brands (Segway-Ninebot/Niu) have formed differentiated advantages in the premium price band above 4,000 yuan.
Electric motorcycle upgrading and intelligentization reshaping the valuation system: The new national standard imposes stricter compliance requirements on electric bicycles, spilling performance demand over to electric motorcycles. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's 407th batch announcement in 2026 shows that brands including Yadea, Segway-Ninebot, Aima, Niu, and Jihu have collectively filed for new electric motorcycle products. In the first half of 2026, the two-wheeler market is forming a consumption shift characterized by "electric bicycles cooling off, electric motorcycles rising."
Overseas expansion becoming the second growth curve: In 2025, electric two-wheeler exports reached 26.72 million units (+20.8%), with export value of 48.9 billion yuan (+18.1%), hitting a historic high. In H1 2026, exports maintained high growth, with export volume of 15.97 million units (+30.9%) and export value of 31.7 billion yuan (+31.5%), with export momentum far exceeding the domestic market.
Investment Recommendations
Overseas expansion is the greatest common denominator across the three major tracks. China's two-wheeler/specialty vehicle industry, leveraging its complete supply chain, extreme cost-performance, and technological iteration advantages, is developing a path of global expansion. Premiumization/intelligentization is the core source of long-term competitiveness and profit elasticity for enterprises. Large-displacement motorcycles, UTV/SSV ATVs, and electric/intelligent two-wheelers each represent the direction of product structure upgrading in their respective tracks. Investors are advised to pay attention to overseas expansion and structural opportunities in the two-wheeler/specialty vehicle industry. In the motorcycle segment, attention is drawn to Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913.SZ); in ATV exports, attention is drawn to CFMOTO (603129.SH) and Taotao Vehicle (301345.SZ); in the electric bicycle segment, attention is drawn to Yadea Holdings (01585), Aima Technology (603529.SH), Segway-Ninebot-W (689009.SH), Niu Technologies, and Xinri E-Vehicle (603787.SH), among others.
Risk Warnings
Risks include: new national standard transition risk, tariff policy change risk, intensifying industry competition risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, and exchange rate fluctuation risk.
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