GlobalX S&P Crude Oil (03097) climbed more than 3%. As of writing, the fund was up 3.28%, trading at HK$8.175, with a turnover of HK$4.8786 million.
On the news front, according to a Xinhua report, Iran formally declined on the evening of April 21 to attend the second round of US-Iran talks scheduled for April 22 in Islamabad, Pakistan. The report stated that Iran believes the United States is obstructing the path to any substantive agreement, making participation in the talks a waste of time. Iran also communicated this decision through Pakistan, stating that its delegation would not travel to Pakistan on the 22nd to fully safeguard the rights of the Iranian people. As reported by the Iranian Students' News Agency, a member of the Iranian parliament's presiding board, Nadri, stated that day that "we will not hold the second round of negotiations" until the issue of the maritime blockade is resolved.
Zhengxin Futures noted that, based on the collapse of the second round of US-Iran talks, coupled with the extension of the ceasefire and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices experienced a slight rebound as of April 21.
According to the latest analysis from a JPMorgan research report, under a scenario where the US Navy implements a "comprehensive export blockade," Iran would be forced to initiate production cuts within approximately 15 days, achieving a complete shutdown around the 30-day mark. This implies that exports of roughly 1.9 million barrels per day could cease entirely around May 20. This projected timeline is rapidly becoming a central anchor for pricing in the global energy market.
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