British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is confronting a pivotal decision between fossil fuel policies and climate commitments since taking office. As public consultations for the Rosebank oil field and the Jackdaw gas field development projects in the North Sea conclude, his cabinet is expected to make final decisions on these landmark initiatives as early as next month. According to relevant documents, both projects must reapply for development permits in line with a landmark ruling by the UK Supreme Court on fossil fuel emissions from two years ago.
Shell and Equinor are jointly advancing these projects through their venture Adoura. While their extraction licenses remain valid, they still require development approval to commence work. Recently, record-breaking summer heatwaves and wildfires in the UK have heightened public concerns about climate change. The government issued a rare wildfire risk emergency alert for England and Wales last Friday. However, senior government officials revealed that Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh is inclined to approve the projects, suggesting a more proactive stance toward the North Sea oil and gas sector than previous administrations.
Prime Minister Starmer has pledged to uphold the Labour Party's 2024 election manifesto, which includes no new exploration licenses in the North Sea, but the government is signaling a more pragmatic approach to developing existing licensed projects. A senior official stated that since former Energy Secretary Ed Miliband moved to the Foreign Secretary role, the government's position on North Sea affairs has become less rigid. Industry insiders are broadly optimistic, as Fahnbulleh chose to visit the oil and gas hub of Aberdeen as her first official trip, meeting with the CEO of the industry lobby group Offshore Energies UK.
Supporters argue that domestic production offers advantages over imports in meeting domestic energy demand, reducing transportation emissions, contributing tax revenue, and safeguarding jobs. Currently, oil and gas account for about 75% of the UK's primary energy needs. The CEO of the Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce emphasized in a letter to lawmakers that the question for policymakers is not whether the UK will continue to consume oil and gas, but rather the source of its energy supply.
Opponents counter that international buyers will compete for the projects' output, and due to limited domestic refining capacity, much of the North Sea crude oil is exported to European refineries. Nearly 50 climate scientists, including authoritative academics from University College London and the University of Leeds, signed a joint letter to the Energy Secretary, warning that continued reliance on fossil fuels will exacerbate extreme weather events. The scientists urged the government to shift focus toward renewable energy development.
The Rosebank oil field, located approximately 80 miles northwest of the Shetland Islands, is the UK's largest undeveloped oil reserve, with a peak daily output estimated at about 69,000 barrels. The Jackdaw gas field, situated around 150 miles east of Aberdeen, could begin production as early as this autumn, with a peak output expected to account for 6.5% of the UK's total North Sea gas production. Both projects were granted development permits under the Conservative government in 2022 and 2023, but these permits were revoked in early 2025 by the Scottish Court of Session.
A previous Supreme Court ruling in the Finch case requires that approval bodies, in addition to considering drilling itself, must assess the carbon emission impacts of burning the products in vehicles or factories. The Finch ruling does not prohibit polluting projects but mandates that their environmental impacts be clearly stated and considered. Subsequent guidance from the energy department grants ministers broad discretion to weigh a project's carbon emissions against other national interest factors when making decisions. In the environmental impact assessments submitted for the projects, developers argued that the projects would not significantly affect global climate targets. A spokesperson for the energy department stated that the minister will make a decision after fully considering public consultation feedback, emphasizing that the North Sea remains a "national asset" and that oil and gas will continue to play a key role in the energy system for decades to come.
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