Research from Omdia indicates that the smartphone market in the Middle East (excluding Turkey) concluded 2025 with a strong performance. In the fourth quarter of 2025, shipments increased by 20% year-on-year to 14.9 million units, marking the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. This expansion was primarily fueled by replacement demand in key Gulf markets, supported by flagship model launches, expanded installment payment and trade-in programs, and sustained retail activity linked to tourism and year-end shopping seasons.
For the full year 2025, smartphone shipments in the Middle East reached 54.8 million units, a 13% increase from the previous year, achieving a third consecutive year of double-digit growth. This performance reflects a market that is not only expanding but also gradually transitioning towards a more mature and value-oriented structure. At this stage, profitability and competitive positioning are becoming as crucial as shipment volume growth.
Saudi Arabia remained the largest market in the region during the fourth quarter of 2025, with shipments growing 14% year-on-year and accounting for approximately 27% of the total market. This was supported by steady replacement demand and enhanced channel restocking. The UAE market grew by 12%, with its highly concentrated retail system continuing to drive replacement cycles, aided by product refresh cycles and promotional activities. Kuwait (+8%) and Qatar (+6%) experienced solid growth, mainly driven by replacement demand. Meanwhile, other markets in the Middle East saw significant shipment increases, benefiting from improved device supply and expanded channel coverage by manufacturers in secondary markets. Despite a slightly weaker performance, Iraq maintained a considerable volume, indicating sustained demand amid market volatility.
"Samsung and Apple dominated the region's year-end sales cycle, collectively accounting for approximately half of the shipments in Q4 2025," said Manish Pravinkumar, Principal Analyst at Omdia. "Replacement demand remains highly concentrated among vendors with strong brand ecosystems and clear product portfolios. Samsung's growth was primarily driven by the Galaxy S25 series, while models like the Galaxy A36, A56, and A16 contributed significantly to volume. Apple achieved steady growth, supported by upgrade demand for the iPhone 17 and robust retail activity in key Gulf markets, further strengthening the replacement cycle led by the premium and mid-to-high-end segments."
Pravinkumar added, "Honor was the fastest-growing major vendor in Q4 2025, with shipments surging 94% year-on-year. Its expanded X series and more premium market positioning were well-received in retail channels. Transsion's shipments declined in the quarter, but the company continued its shift towards a more value-focused product portfolio, with TECNO supporting overall performance in key markets like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. Xiaomi is also gradually strengthening channel promotion for higher-priced models, such as the Note 15 Pro and Xiaomi 15T."
Pravinkumar continued, "Smartphone shipments in the region are forecast to decline by 10% in 2026, mainly reflecting tighter supply conditions, with the slowdown expected to be slightly more pronounced than the global average. Manufacturers are likely to prioritize larger markets like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where tourism development, infrastructure investment, and mature installment financing systems will continue to drive demand for premium devices. However, more price-sensitive markets, such as Iraq, will remain vulnerable to policy changes, import costs, and constraints on consumer purchasing power. With rising component costs and more selective supply allocation, Apple and Samsung are expected to demonstrate relative stability, while Chinese OEMs focused on volume-driven growth will face greater pressure to balance market share and profitability. In the longer term, beyond 2026, the Middle East market is expected to gradually shift towards a more stable, replacement-driven growth model, moving away from the significant volatility seen in recent years."
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