In Tuesday's trading session, the domestic natural rubber market saw a pullback after an initial surge. The price for domestic full-cream latex rubber settled at 18,250 yuan per tonne, reflecting a decrease of 100 yuan per tonne from the previous day, while Thailand's No. 20 blended rubber was quoted at 17,750 yuan per tonne, also down 100 yuan per tonne day-on-day.
On the raw material front, Thai rubber latex was reported at 78.00 baht per kilogram, flat from the prior session, with Thai cup rubber inching up 0.30 baht to 71.00 baht per kilogram. Domestically, Yunnan latex rose 0.2 yuan to 17.1 yuan per kilogram, and Hainan latex also climbed 0.2 yuan to 15.8 yuan per kilogram. As of August 30, 2026, total bonded and general trade rubber inventories in the Qingdao region stood at 627,700 tonnes, a decrease of 3,800 tonnes or 0.6% from the previous period. Bonded warehouse stocks increased by 10.01% to 76,800 tonnes, while general trade inventories fell 1.92% to 550,900 tonnes. The inbound rate for sampled bonded warehouses in Qingdao rose by 3.88 percentage points, with the outbound rate falling 6.42 percentage points; for general trade warehouses, the inbound rate gained 0.52 percentage points, and the outbound rate rose 0.99 percentage points.
Continuous nighttime rainfall across Thailand's northeast and domestic producing areas like Yunnan has persistently hindered tapping activities, creating a relatively strong short-term supply constraint that cannot be adjusted by price levels. On the demand side, following the recent sharp price advances, downstream enterprises have slowed their procurement pace, though production has not yet shown any marked deceleration, with ongoing substitution between raw material and finished product inventories. The supply-demand balance sheet has finally witnessed an intuitive driver, with sustained nighttime precipitation limiting supply short-term and fueling a continuous rebound in RU and NR contracts. Looking ahead, short-term weather remains unpredictable, and before the rainy season concludes, RU and NR are likely to maintain elevated levels. However, it is relatively certain that the rainy season will eventually end, meaning the price rally driven by supply contraction has its boundaries, and the ceiling for pricing may gradually become visible.
In the PX market, both supply and demand are on the rise. China's industry load factor increased by 4.8 percentage points to 72.5%, still hovering near five-year lows, while Asia's PX load factor rose 2.7 percentage points to 64.1%. Following this round of maintenance, most planned overhauls for the year will be completed, with industry load factors expected to improve during August-September, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, PTA loads are recovering, and PX is projected to remain in a destocking phase in September, albeit at a slower pace. Geopolitically, the U.S. military launched a fresh round of strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran starting at noon Eastern Time on September 1. President Trump subsequently warned on social media of "more severe and larger-scale" strikes if Iran retaliates. The escalating US-Iran conflict triggered a sharp selloff across major U.S. indices, with Brent crude surging nearly 5% to around $95 per barrel.
Domestically, most energy and chemical commodities rallied strongly on Monday, with a high number of limit-up contracts, breaking through the August 25 high. Low inventories coupled with strengthening costs have become the core drivers of the sector's strength. Until bullish capital sentiment is fully released, energy and chemical commodities will retain their strength, though chasing highs is inadvisable given the risk of short-term pullbacks. With robust near-term cost support, the PX November main contract is expected to follow domestic oil price recovery higher, with a strategy of buying on dips, facing resistance in the 8,500-8,700 range, while the PX10-1 spread favors rolling bullish plays. In related market news, a 1-million-tonne PX plant in the northwest is scheduled for a two-week maintenance shutdown starting early next week, representing 2.3% of national capacity, while a 300,000-tonne PX facility in Taiwan has rescheduled its maintenance to around mid-October, accounting for 0.4% of global capacity.
Turning to PTA, the supply-demand picture shows increasing supply and decreasing demand. During this period, Dusun Energy returned to normal operations, Honggang and Wilian Chemical are restarting and raising loads, while Yisheng Dahua experienced an unplanned shutdown. The PTA industry load factor rose 4.9 percentage points to 63.8%, still at five-year lows for the period, with spot liquidity gradually recovering and basis weakening. On the demand side, new orders for grey fabrics are partially acceptable, mainly involving multiple small-lot orders for autumn and winter fabrics. Comprehensive operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have rebounded locally, though the polyester industry load fell 2.6 percentage points to 78.1%, primarily due to reductions in bottle chips and staple fiber output. PTA is likely to conclude its destocking phase in September, shifting toward balance or minor accumulation. Upstream raw material inventories remain low with tight spot supplies supporting near-term prices, but supply recovery expectations and weak terminal demand cap the upside for distant contracts, which face resistance near previous highs, creating a near-strong-far-weak market structure. The PTA January contract is rallying with macro sentiment, favoring rolling long positions on dips, with resistance at 5,900-6,100, and the TA10-1 spread is returning to a bullish structure suitable for rolling positive carry trades. In related news, a 1.5-million-tonne PTA unit in East China has restarted with products expected shortly after being shut down in early July, representing 1.6% of national capacity. Meanwhile, a major polyester bottle chip producer in East China plans a 20% output cut, and a Southwest facility intends to shut down a 300,000-tonne unit previously producing basic chips, collectively affecting 0.6% of national capacity. Sales data shows Jiangsu-Zhejiang polyester filament sales broadly weakened on Tuesday, with average estimates around 30-40% by 3:30 PM.
For MEG, supply is increasing while demand contracts. The domestic ethylene glycol industry load rose 6.3 percentage points to 69.3%, mainly driven by oil-based capacity increases, with syngas-based loads up 3.6 percentage points to 69.9%. Previously idled units such as Xinjiang Tianye and Zhengdakai are expected to restart progressively in September. Actual supply increments from Chinese MEG imports will not materialize until mid-October at the earliest. Social inventory destocking will extend through the third quarter. High profits are incentivizing domestic operating rate increases, while downstream negative feedback is emerging, with bottle chips and staple fibers cutting output and offloading MEG spot cargoes. September's spot supply tightness will ease compared to August but remains far from loose. If imported MEG cargo ships successfully navigate the Strait of Hormuz, forward supply gradually normalizes, pressuring distant-month prices, maintaining a near-strong-far-weak fundamental structure. Currently, both supply-demand fundamentals and costs are robust for MEG, with funds re-entering the October contract, leaving significant upside imagination. Before end-September, repeated buying on dips for the EG October contract is recommended, though capital remains sensitive to bearish news at highs, warranting close monitoring of MEG vessel movements toward China. In related news, two 200,000-tonne-per-year syngas-based MEG units in Henan plan maintenance shutdowns around September 5 for approximately 20 days each, representing a combined 1.3% of national capacity, while a 360,000-tonne MEG facility in Taiwan is currently heating up for restart after being idled in early 2026, accounting for 0.6% of global capacity.
In the PF sector, supply is declining while demand holds steady. The load factor for spinning-grade direct-spun polyester staple fiber fell 3.1 percentage points to 76.1%, with September reductions expected to continue, pushing industry loads to yearly lows. Demand-wise, local orders are gradually emerging, but actual volumes remain limited, large orders are scarce, and demand-side momentum is insufficient, keeping the overall pace slow. Downstream stocking sentiment is cautious, with little near-term demand improvement expected, while yarn mill loads are flat at 53.0%, still at five-year lows for the period. With increased staple fiber output cuts, the supply-demand balance will improve on a sequential basis. Short-term costs have stabilized and recovered, and the PF November contract is following raw material gains, with resistance at 7,900-8,000, presenting opportunities for long PF processing margins. In sales news, direct-spun polyester staple fiber sales on Tuesday showed differentiated performance across plants, with average sales at 70% as of around 3:00 PM.
For bottle chips (PR), both supply and demand are declining. The industry load factor decreased 9.8 percentage points to 62.3%, hitting new yearly lows, with September maintenance units accounting for approximately 8.3% of total capacity, suggesting further supply declines. On the demand side, peak-season order procurement has essentially concluded, with beverage and other industries entering the traditional consumption off-season, weakening demand support. Major domestic soft drink manufacturers have already locked in September supply, leaving limited room for additional purchases. The bottle chip fundamentals are expected to show marginal improvement, with short-term costs stabilizing, and the PR November main contract following raw material gains, with resistance at 7,700-7,800 and opportunities for long PR processing margins.
Soda ash futures surged on Tuesday with spot prices also rising, as Shahe heavy alkali was quoted at 1,020 yuan per tonne, up 33 yuan. Tuesday's commodity market saw broad gains with optimistic sentiment. Last week's soda ash maintenance was minimal, with output increasing 20,000 tonnes to 766,000 tonnes. Starting this Monday, Boyuan Yinggen Chemical began reducing operations with duration yet to be determined. Near-term soda ash downstream demand remains weak, with cautious midstream and downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Latest alkali plant inventories rose 36,000 tonnes from last Thursday to 1.908 million tonnes, while delivery warehouse stocks increased 81,000 tonnes to 573,000 tonnes. Last week, one float glass and one photovoltaic glass line underwent cold repair, and this week two photovoltaic glass lines are scheduled for cold repair. The combined daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass is declining, keeping heavy alkali demand weak, light alkali demand stable-weak, and midstream/downstream buying interest subdued. July soda ash imports rose to 29,700 tonnes with exports climbing to 282,300 tonnes. Macro-wise, domestic real estate sales data rose sequentially recently, approaching year-ago levels, while overseas macro factors lean bearish with a stronger dollar, and domestic macro conditions remain neutral amid continued property sector declines, weak domestic demand, and improved expectations. Overall, short-term soda ash demand is weak with rising inventories, but reduced operations at leading natural alkali producers provide supply-side support. In terms of warehouse receipts, Tuesday saw a decrease of 185 lots to 6,828 lots. Short-term soda ash futures are expected to trade in a range, with the SA2701 contract referencing the 1,060-1,090 range intraday.
Glass futures also rallied sharply on Tuesday while spot prices held steady, with North China flat glass at 970 yuan per tonne and Central China at the same level. Shahe's production-sales ratio reached 128% and Hubei's 109%, both improving. The short-term glass fundamentals show weak supply and demand with low valuations. Last week saw glass operating rates rise with output stable, while downstream purchasing enthusiasm was moderate and inventories fell slightly. Latest glass inventories decreased 18,000 tonnes to 3.702 million tonnes, up 18.4% year-on-year. No float glass production lines changed last week, with current daily melting volume stable at 142,215 T/D, down approximately 10.9% year-on-year. From January to July, domestic building completion area fell 23.2% year-on-year, though the decline narrowed slightly. Recent property sales data improved sequentially, nearing year-ago levels. As of mid-August, glass deep-processing orders increased 0.8 days to 10.3 days, down 0.9% year-on-year. Short-term glass supply has ticked up with seasonal demand increases, valuations remain low, and macro and cost-side disturbances are growing, warranting continued attention to supply-side changes. Glass futures are expected to remain biased bullish with range-bound trading, with buying on dips recommended, and the FG2701 contract referencing the 960-990 range intraday.
Caustic soda's main SH2611 contract rose 17 yuan to 1,941 yuan per tonne on Tuesday. In Shandong, mainstream 32% ionic membrane alkali transacted at 605-720 yuan per tonne, stable from the prior working day, with a major local downstream alumina plant implementing a liquid alkali purchase price of 570 yuan per tonne. Shandong's 50% ionic membrane alkali averaged 1,000-1,060 yuan per tonne, down 10 yuan from the previous working day. Downstream demand in Shandong remains lackluster, chlor-alkali plant operations are largely unchanged with some shipment pressure, keeping 32% liquid alkali prices stable, while 50% liquid alkali faces soft demand with chlor-alkali producers running steadily but maintaining shipment pressure, leading to price cuts. Supply continues the high-maintenance rhythm observed from June through August, with marginal restarts coexisting with new maintenance schedules, keeping weekly maintenance losses elevated and operating rates low year-on-year. Liquid chlorine prices have weakened, and long-term pressure is expected to persist, dampening producers' restart intentions. Non-aluminum demand is suppressed by excessive profit margins elsewhere, providing weak demand drivers for caustic soda, while neutral non-aluminum demand and high inventories cap rebound potential in futures prices, though low valuations offer cost support, suggesting wide-range oscillation in the short term. The strategy calls for range-bound trading with the SH2611 main contract referencing 1,800-2,050 yuan per tonne.
PVC's main V2701 contract rose 97 yuan to 4,888 yuan per tonne at Tuesday's close. Recent sustained gains in coking coal and coke prices have pushed up production costs for semi-coke and calcium carbide. With calcium carbide producers facing losses and PVC units running at low loads, cost-push and supply contraction provide strong support for PVC. Monday's sharp morning rally reflected markedly warmer market expectations for cost increases, supply contraction, and demand improvement during the traditional "golden September and silver October" period. However, PVC demand has yet to see a substantial reversal, with inventory and warehouse receipt pressures persisting. Near-term prices are therefore strong, but the rally is primarily driven by expectations and costs. If spot prices follow higher and inventories continue to decline, the market could extend toward 5,000 yuan per tonne, but if demand disappoints, upside will be limited. The strategy is range-bound trading with the V2701 contract referencing 4,400-5,000 yuan per tonne.
Crude oil continued its upward trajectory on Tuesday, with Brent's November contract surging 4.99% to break above $95 per barrel, while WTI's October contract rose 5.06% to surpass $90 per barrel. Following the weekend resurgence of the US-Iran conflict, the U.S. military launched fresh strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets on Monday, with Iran claiming to have retaliated with heavy missiles against a U.S. base in Jordan, further confirming escalating Middle East geopolitical risks. September's oil market was previously expected to largely maintain its $80-95 range for Brent, but with global oil inventories, refined product stocks, and crude tank levels having fallen to five-year lows and Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions persisting, total oil inventories are poised to break lower by mid-September, heightening upside risks. Attention remains on how low inventory levels in Asian demand countries amplify the perception of supply scarcity, maintaining the view of range-bound but firm oil prices. The strategy is to hold bullish crude oil call options.
In the fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil markets, Singapore cash premiums for high and low sulfur fuel oil strengthened by $1.80 per tonne and $5.37 per tonne respectively on Tuesday, with the intensifying US-Iran geopolitical narrative driving overall oil market strength and more active fuel oil buying. Six months into the Middle East supply disruption, there are still no signs of abatement, with global fuel oil inventories having fallen to seasonal lows. Restricted Middle East export logistics channels and refiners prioritizing diesel output are respectively constraining high and low sulfur fuel oil supplies, and fuel oil markets are expected to continue following crude oil with a firm bias. The strategy is to hold long positions.
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