President Donald Trump stated he is handling the Iran situation in a "low-key" manner, suggesting a preference for increased economic pressure over a large-scale military campaign. In an interview, Trump noted that the US is engaged in "semi-negotiations" with Iran, observing the country's severe inflation and financial shortfalls, which he claims have left it unable to pay its military expenses. He added that a US naval blockade is exacerbating Iran's economic crisis.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei to discuss the nation's economic and military challenges. The meeting covered key topics including public welfare, the current "third imposed war" situation, military developments, and foreign exchange and energy management. Discussions also touched on economic interactions with foreign parties.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a US-backed peace plan for Gaza proposed by the "Peace Committee," stating that Israel will not withdraw from the Gaza Strip until Hamas is genuinely disarmed. Netanyahu emphasized that the disarmament must be real, covering all weapons, and that Israel will continue to counter threats against its forces and civilians.
Iran's Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee approved the general framework of a "Strategic Action Plan to Ensure the Security and Development of the Strait of Hormuz." The plan received unanimous approval after discussions with relevant institutions and agencies.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran is in the final stages of consultations with Oman to adjust the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. However, he stressed that any agreement on this adjustment does not mean the Strait will reopen, as reopening requires a separate set of conditions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' spokesman stated that Iran's current strategy is to maintain control over the Strait until the enemy accepts all of its conditions and admits defeat.
Yemen's Houthi group claimed responsibility for a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan, describing it as a "precise strike" in response to alleged Saudi drone violations of Yemeni airspace.
Russia's Ministry of Defense reported intercepting 285 Ukrainian drones across various regions and launching strikes on a thermal power plant, seven substations, and a gas field infrastructure in Ukraine's Sumy region.
Analysts are predicting high volatility in oil prices. The market experienced sharp swings last week, with Brent crude initially dropping over 7% to $81.55 per barrel and WTI falling below $80, before rebounding strongly to close at $83.55 and $78.18, respectively. Sun Fukun, Deputy General Manager at Huayuan Futures, attributed the price action to the interplay between fluctuating Middle East geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic expectations. The initial drop was driven by rising hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Strait of Hormuz situation, while the subsequent rebound was fueled by Iran's proposed legislation to restrict hostile vessels and ongoing Red Sea shipping risks.
Wang Jun, Chief Expert at Green Dahuai Futures, added that other factors include rising supply pressure from OPEC+'s approved increase of 188,000 barrels per day in September and weakening demand due to a global manufacturing slowdown and the end of the summer consumption peak. The market saw a further boost on August 9th, with crude oil dark pools rising over 1% in early trading, with NYMEX crude breaking above $77 and Brent above $82. Both analysts noted that while the dark pool activity signals bullish sentiment, the market is in a wait-and-see period, unlikely to form a sustained trend.
Looking ahead, Wang Jun expects international crude oil prices to maintain high volatility in mid-to-late August, with geopolitical factors remaining the primary driver. Sun Fukun believes that in the long term, oil prices are unlikely to sustain a sharp rally and will instead trend in a high-range, wide-band fluctuation, constrained by weak global manufacturing demand and increased supply from OPEC+ and US shale oil. Overall, August presents high volatility risk, with key focuses on US-Iran negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz transit expectations, and US crude inventory data.
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