Abstract
Intercontinental Exchange will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 05, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview consolidates recent financial data, segment trends, and consensus forecasts to frame expectations for revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS, along with widely cited institutional views from the last six months through January 29, 2026.Market Forecast
Consensus compiled for Intercontinental Exchange’s current quarter points to revenue of $2.48 billion, up 6.24% year over year, EBIT of $1.47 billion, and adjusted EPS of $1.67, with modeled EPS growth of 12.17% year over year. Forecasts imply continued operating leverage into year-end with stable net profitability supported by a high-margin fee base; gross profit margin and net profit margin are expected to broadly track last quarter’s levels while modestly expanding on mix. The main business outlook centers on exchange-related transaction and data-linked fees as the anchor for revenue and earnings, benefiting from resilient derivatives activity and stable subscription contracts. The most promising segment is fixed income and data services, where recurring revenue and pricing updates are supporting growth; last quarter the segment generated $618.00 million, and forecasts point to continued mid-single-digit year-over-year expansion driven by demand for benchmarks, pricing, and analytics.Last Quarter Review
Intercontinental Exchange delivered prior-quarter revenue of $2.41 billion, a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $816.00 million, a net profit margin of 33.84%, and adjusted EPS of $1.71, up 10.32% year over year. A key highlight was adjusted EPS outperformance versus estimates, reflecting stronger operational efficiency and disciplined expense control. Main business highlights included exchange revenue of $1.86 billion, fixed income and data services revenue of $618.00 million, and mortgage technology revenue of $528.00 million, indicating a solid contribution from recurring data contracts and steady mortgage-processing activity.Current Quarter Outlook
Exchange and Trading-Related Businesses
Intercontinental Exchange’s core exchange franchise—spanning futures, options, and cash markets—remains the primary driver of quarterly performance in both revenue and earnings. With forecast revenue of $2.48 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.67, market expectations embed stable to modestly higher transaction activity in energy, rates, and commodities relative to the immediately preceding period. The operating model benefits from efficient clearing operations and a scalable technology stack, allowing incremental volumes to drop through at high margins. The latest quarter-on-quarter net profit movement of -4.11% in the prior period underscores typical seasonality and mix effects, and the current quarter’s setup anticipates a normalization in activity levels consistent with year-end derivatives roll and early-year hedging demand captured in late-quarter trading days. Pricing and product depth across energy benchmarks, ICE Brent, and emissions are positioned to support fee resilience, especially as corporate hedging and risk-transfer needs remain active into year-end. The exchange segment should continue to anchor gross margin stability around high-nineties on a consolidated basis, translating into steady net profitability even with modest fluctuations in trading volume.Fixed Income and Data Services
Fixed income and data services exhibit dependable recurring revenue characteristics that contribute to earnings visibility during softer trading periods. Last quarter’s revenue of $618.00 million aligns with a persistent demand for evaluated pricing, indices, and analytics from asset managers, banks, and corporates. The current quarter forecast implies continued mid-single-digit year-over-year growth driven by contract renewals, incremental seat expansion, and periodic price adjustments, supporting consolidated EBIT growth of 10.64%. As clients absorb indexing and valuation needs tied to regulatory reporting and risk frameworks, data subscription resilience offers margin stability and offsets potential volatility in transaction-based fees. This segment’s contribution is central to sustaining net profit margins around the low-to-mid-thirties, balancing seasonal trading swings and lending credibility to consensus adjusted EPS of $1.67. Management’s focus on integrated data platforms across fixed income, commodities, and multi-asset analytics further enhances cross-sell opportunities that improve revenue per client over time.Mortgage Technology
Mortgage technology generated $528.00 million last quarter, reflecting robust platform usage across origination, processing, and secondary market workflow tools. While mortgage activity is sensitive to rate cycles and seasonal patterns, platform breadth and compliance tooling sustain baseline revenue even in subdued lending environments. The present quarter’s revenue forecast embeds cautious assumptions for mortgage volumes as the industry adjusts to evolving rate expectations, but a wide customer base and embedded workflows create durability for service fees and transaction add-ons. The segment’s growth potential lies in expanding digital adoption by lenders and servicers, particularly as institutions standardize on integrated data, compliance, and pipeline-management solutions to reduce per-loan processing time. Against the consolidated forecast backdrop, mortgage technology should contribute a steady share of revenue with limited drag on margins, reinforcing the case for sustained EPS around consensus levels. Execution in customer onboarding and retention remains a key swing factor that can modestly influence consolidated net profit margin relative to last quarter’s 33.84%.Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Share performance around the print will be most sensitive to top-line delivery versus the $2.48 billion revenue consensus, as even slight deviations in exchange trading volumes can shift EBIT from the projected $1.47 billion. Margin commentary will be scrutinized, with investors watching whether net profit margin holds near the low-to-mid-thirties and whether adjusted EPS lands close to the $1.67 consensus. Segment disclosures for fixed income and data will matter for gauging recurring revenue momentum, while qualitative trends in energy and rates trading can indicate durability of volume mix into the first half of the new year. Management’s color on mortgage technology adoption and client activity will also frame expectations for the pace of digital processing across lending markets. Guidance or qualitative commentary about early-quarter trading days and subscription retention rates may be the deciding factor for whether earnings quality aligns with the current bullish tilt in institutional previews.Analyst Opinions
Institutional commentary gathered over the last six months reflects a cautiously bullish stance on Intercontinental Exchange’s upcoming quarter, with a majority of analysts highlighting steady growth across fixed income and data services and resilient exchange volumes. Many previews point to the company’s ability to meet or modestly exceed adjusted EPS expectations due to disciplined cost management and the inherently high-margin composition of its fee base. Notably, broad-based sell-side discussions emphasize the benefit of recurring subscription revenue and the operational leverage that comes from stable clearing and technology infrastructure, framing a favorable risk-reward into the print.Leading institutions have underscored the consistency of ICE’s performance versus consensus. Analysts looking at the last quarter’s adjusted EPS of $1.71, which exceeded estimates, have argued that the current quarter’s $1.67 projection is attainable with a margin of safety given the diversified revenue streams and mix of transactional and subscription income. Coverage commentaries frequently cite the durability of fixed income and data contracts and the relative insulation from short-term trading fluctuations, positioning ICE to maintain EBIT around $1.47 billion and sustain net margins close to the prior quarter’s 33.84%. Where bullish projections cluster, they often tie upside to cross-selling momentum within data services and stable energy and rates derivatives activity late in the quarter that should feed through to revenue and earnings at the consolidated level.
On balance, the majority view is constructive, anticipating a modest beat or in-line outcome on revenue and adjusted EPS with limited risk to margins. Analysts argue that any variance is more likely to be driven by the cadence of volumes in energy benchmarks and rates futures than by structural shifts in the business, which remains underpinned by a robust subscription base. This perspective aligns with the prevailing forecast of $2.48 billion in revenue and $1.67 adjusted EPS, as well as modeled EBIT of $1.47 billion. For investors tracking the release on February 05, 2026, the focus among bullish previews is whether fixed income and data services continue their steady growth and whether exchange volumes show enough resilience to support margin stability through early-year seasonality.
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