For stock trading, consult Golden Kirin analyst reports — authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities! Source: International Finance News. On October 23, A-shares extended their decline in the morning session, then fluctuated upward, surging rapidly in the afternoon as market sentiment warmed; 4,526 individual stocks closed higher, the communications sector saw a clear reversal, and computer, media, and power equipment sectors led the gains. Market trading was notably active, with turnover expanding to 1.97 trillion yuan. Interviewees stated that this is only a preliminary stabilization and does not yet confirm a bottom. A true market bottom and stabilization requires sustained volume increases, the index no longer making new lows, tech leaders halting their declines, market breadth recovery, and incremental capital entering — with most of these signals appearing simultaneously. On the operational level, investors should not frequently adjust positions based on single-day fluctuations; at this stage, going all-in to bet on direction is not advisable — a lighter position is more appropriate.
4,526 Stocks Closed Higher
In terms of index performance, the market opened lower and fell in the morning, rebounded around 10:30 AM, and further rallied in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 2% in the morning but ultimately closed down 0.89% at 3,690.48 points; the ChiNext Index fell more than 3% intraday but ultimately closed up 4.16% at 2,684.1 points; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped more than 2% intraday but ultimately closed up nearly 3%. The CSI 300 and Beijing 50 rose nearly 2%, the SSE 50 gained more than 1%, and the STAR 50 rose more than 3%. Trading volume expanded by 431 billion yuan, with combined daily turnover across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reaching 1.97 trillion yuan. A-shares had been sluggish in both price and volume recently, with leveraged funds continuously declining; as of October 22, margin financing and securities lending balances across the three markets had dropped to 2.46 trillion yuan. On the board, as the index rallied, the tech sector swung from sharp losses to sharp gains, with computer software, general equipment, and power supply equipment rising more than 4%, the robot concept sector up nearly 8%, and Kirin batteries, reducers, motors, film and animation, and internet finance also performing well. However, dividend stocks, cross-border payments, power, and banking sectors declined. In the morning, sectors were broadly lower, with tech stocks under obvious pressure. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors, 27 closed higher; the computer sector fell nearly 3% intraday but ultimately closed up 4.67%; media, power equipment, and machinery equipment sectors also surged; the electronics sector fell nearly 5% intraday but ultimately closed up nearly 3%; the non-ferrous metals sector dropped more than 3% intraday but ultimately gained more than 2%; the communications sector fell nearly 6% intraday but ultimately rose nearly 2%. The banking sector was in the green in the morning, weakened in the afternoon, and closed down 1.3%. Utilities, steel, and agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors edged lower. In the morning, individual stocks were broadly declining; as the rebound unfolded, the market shifted from a loss-making effect to a profit-making effect, with 4,526 stocks closing higher and 84 hitting the daily limit; 909 stocks closed lower, with 7 hitting the daily limit down. Among actively traded stocks, Zhongji Innolight fell nearly 6% intraday but ultimately reversed to gain 3.82% at 612.63 yuan per share, CATL surged 7.8% to 237.6 yuan per share, and Changxin Technology rose nearly 8% to 42.85 yuan per share.
Technical Repair After Deep Adjustment
Cheng Tianyi, senior researcher at Qingdao Anzhi Investment, analyzed that today's market oversold rebound was driven by technical repair after prior deep adjustments. First, the ChiNext had cumulatively fallen 40% from its high, with oversold signals prominent, accumulating strong technical rebound demand. Second, on the sentiment front, the recently held Financial Street Forum released clear friendly signals — PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned research into switching the main open market operation maturity to overnight, effectively boosting market confidence. Against this backdrop, bottom-fishing funds flowed in continuously through broad-based ETFs with significantly amplified trading volume, becoming the direct driver of the day's rebound and providing important liquidity support. Tong Diyi, chairman of Longying Fuzhe Asset, said today's market featured panic selling in the morning triggering stop-loss orders, followed by stabilization funds intervening early — broad-based ETF volume surges shifted significantly from the closing bell to the morning session, with regular interval volume spikes. Meanwhile, tech stocks like Zhongji Innolight and Accelink Technologies密集 announced normal operations and sufficient orders around midday, combined with weighted stocks like CATL rebounding, breaking the negative loop between capital and sentiment. Concentrated broad-based ETF volume increases indicate institutional or stabilization funds absorbing at low levels, using index tools instead of individual stock speculation — a typical left-side action, but could also be position adjustment hedging, not directly equating to a trend reversal. "Friday's dip-and-recovery is not simply a short-term rebound; it should be a mid-term correction of the four-month continuous decline. After two weeks of sustained panic, the market will usher in a rare period of risk appetite stabilization," analyzed Xia Fengguang, fund manager at Rongzhi Investment. There are four main reasons: First, technical resonance — taking the CSI 300 as an example, monthly, weekly, and daily oscillators are all at extremely low levels; the CSI 300 weekly chart posted 11 consecutive negative weeks, a historical record; after the Shanghai Composite broke below the key 3,674 level on Thursday, declines accelerated, only stabilizing after probing down to 3,574, and overseas markets also showed signs of breakdown this week with linkage to A-shares. Second, the weakest areas rebounded most strongly — the ChiNext Index went from down 3% to up 4% on Friday, a typical bear liquidation signal. Third, listed companies and fund companies increased buybacks, announced simultaneously — especially密集 announcements around midday Friday rather than after close, showing clear coordinated action signals. Fourth, broad-based ETFs saw significant volume increases, more pronounced as the week's decline accelerated — Thursday alone exceeded 50 billion yuan, the recent highest, moving in tandem with market sentiment, a very clear signal of large capital positioning. Since October, A-shares have been persistently sluggish in price and volume; what market signal does today's V-shaped rebound release? Hu Mohan, fund manager at Mingze Investment, said today's rebound was relatively strong, releasing a clear bottoming signal. From the board, panic chips were fully released in the morning, followed by a strong afternoon rebound, consistent with market bottoming characteristics of the past two years. The board showed defensive dividends retreating and high-elasticity growth taking over, indicating capital risk appetite is repairing. Concentrated broad-based ETF volume increases are essentially systematic absorption by allocation-type capital at pessimistic levels. And today is not an isolated single-day anomaly — as of October 22, equity ETFs had seen 14 consecutive trading days of net inflows, totaling nearly 260 billion yuan. Broad-based ETFs persistently increasing volume against the trend during index adjustments typically corresponds to medium-to-long-term allocation capital recognizing valuation attractiveness, rather than short-term speculative capital chasing gains.
Bottoming Still Requires Time
Of much concern is whether the market has stabilized and how sustainable the rebound is. Cheng Tianyi believes this depends on whether more substantive incremental policy support lands subsequently. If macro expectations can further stabilize, the market may see a phased recovery. On allocation strategy, he recommends focusing on sectors that were previously oversold and have solid earnings verification and industrial trend support, seeking flexible varieties with safety margins in valuation depressions. "The current level has likely already bottomed and stabilized," Hu Mohan stated directly. As for whether a "reversal" forms, attention must be paid to rebound strength and continuity. The baseline scenario for future evolution is more likely a "rebound—pullback confirmation—direction re-selection" oscillating upward structure; the probability of a one-sided V-shaped reversal currently appears low. "This can only be considered preliminary stabilization, not confirmed bottoming," Tong Diyi believes. A bottom is usually a zone, requiring observation of whether volume can moderately and continuously expand, whether policy can move from expectation to implementation, whether strong stocks complete their catch-up declines, and whether new mainlines emerge. More critically, the sustainability of ETF net inflows and whether capital can transmit from ETFs to individual stocks to form comprehensive sentiment repair. The future is likely oscillating bottom-building plus structural rotation; if the rebound continues, previously oversold dual-innovation boards may lead, lighter-chip software and robots are more easily attacked by capital, while institution-heavy computing hardware still faces heavy selling pressure on rebounds. "The bottom is likely a zone, not a specific point," said Wu Bingye, research manager at Baimai Investment. Confirming stabilization requires three signals. First, capital structure — institutional heavy holdings' excess returns over non-institutional stocks turning positive, which is very important; today's volume and broad gains are positive readings, but a single day is insufficient evidence, and ETF volume increases are mostly left-side signals. Second, external constraints — if US Treasury yields peak and fall, and the Fed holds steady at month-end, that's a prerequisite for growth stock repair. Third, earnings delivery — if Q3 reports show AI computing power and electronics sector orders and gross margins continue to deliver, the index center can rise. In judgment, the current level is basically this round's bottom zone; Q4 is more likely wide-range oscillation with a slowly rising center, rather than a V-shaped major reversal. "Market bottoming takes time," analyzed Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment. This decline was mainly driven by market sentiment. If economic data is steady over the next two to four weeks, AI industry growth is verified, and market sentiment improves as a result, the market could bottom and rebound. Market stabilization requires signals including increased volume, the index not making new lows, tech leaders halting declines, market breadth recovery, and capital entering — all or most of these appearing.
Not Advisable to Go All-In on Direction
Today's market rebound — should investors add positions or use the opportunity to reduce? On this, Tong Diyi advises against frequently switching holdings based on single-day gains or losses; retain varieties with deliverable earnings and orders; for varieties with excessive gains and unsupported valuations, use the rebound to reduce positions. Cash-holding funds should participate in batches, avoiding concentrated chasing on broad rally days. For allocation, consider broad-based foundations plus high-dividend defense, balancing AI computing power, semiconductor materials and other boom directions, but be wary of high US Treasury yields suppressing high-valuation sectors. Also note that the AI mainline has high global crowding, reacts sharply to external disturbances, and easily amplifies volatility. Don't use position increases to bet on quick recovery — first think clearly about the reason for the rebound, conditions for adding positions, and stop-loss levels; controlling your hands is more important than getting the direction right. "Recommend retaining some cash to cope with volatility," Yuan Huaming pointed out. AI is a long-cycle direction; the industrial trend hasn't changed and will largely remain a medium-to-long-term mainline. Within the mainline, divergence will occur — varieties with technical barriers and operational support will continue to improve. Some overvalued, underperforming varieties face heavy adjustment pressure. Boom-improving pro-cyclical varieties, high-dividend varieties benefiting from globally tight rates, and some traditional directions with sufficient prior adjustment and recent policy support may gain attention before year-end. Market volatility and sector rotation objectively provide structural attack windows; investors can use this to uncover wrongly killed targets. "Currently not advisable to go all-in betting on direction; better to respond with lighter positions," Wu Bingye stated directly. Structurally, one end can focus on high-dividend assets like banks, utilities, and transportation to hedge volatility and lock in dividends; the other end is the oversold tech mainline with verified earnings, i.e., semiconductors, AI computing power, etc. Meanwhile, non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals can also be watched. Since October, 291 companies have repurchased a total of 16.948 billion yuan; companies willing to spend heavily on buybacks are also worth attention. On specific holding strategy, Hu Mohan recommends core positions focus on core targets in oversold tech directions as the offensive elasticity direction, focusing on quality enterprises with sufficient prior adjustment, deviation between stock price and fundamentals, and Q3 earnings verification. He continues to favor AI-related targets aligned with domestic development mainlines, and recommends focusing on the robot direction, which is likely the Q4 mainline. In investing, note short-term volume falsification risk and repeated overseas disturbances. Sina Statement: This message is reproduced from Sina cooperative media; Sina publishes this article for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not mean it agrees with its views or confirms its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operating based on this bear their own risks.
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