Brent crude futures have dropped below $100 per barrel, influenced by hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Chris Weston from Pepperstone noted that if Brent crude falls toward $90, it could revitalize risk assets. This would occur as short-term inflation expectations ease slightly and implied bets on 2027 interest rate hikes are trimmed modestly. The strategist indicated that inflation expectations will be tested this week with the release of the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is anticipated to show a modest year-on-year increase. Overall PCE inflation is forecast at 3.8%—nearly double the Federal Reserve's target. The decline in oil prices might temper the dollar's reaction to the upcoming data. "Dollar positioning has become quite extended, and a drop in inflation expectations driven by lower energy prices could lead to some unwinding of long dollar positions," Weston added.
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