Abstract
Mattel will report quarterly results on February 10, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue growth and a sharp year-over-year rebound in adjusted EPS; our preview synthesizes the latest quarterly performance, brand mix, and current-quarter forecasts alongside prevailing institutional views.
Market Forecast
Based on the latest compiled expectations for the to‑be‑reported period, revenue is projected at USD 1.85 billion, up 13.62% year over year, with adjusted EPS around USD 0.40, up 99.46% year over year; EBIT is anticipated at USD 235.15 million, up 100.44% year over year. Forecasts do not specify gross profit margin or net profit margin; the market setup centers on top‑line acceleration and pronounced earnings leverage versus last year’s comparable.
The core brand portfolio is expected to carry momentum into the new quarter through product refreshes and a normalized retail channel, while the company’s premium and collector offerings are positioned to support price and mix. Hot Wheels stands out as the most promising brand, contributing USD 547.20 million in last quarter revenue and expected to track the company’s projected top‑line growth trajectory of 13.62% year over year in the quarter to be reported.
Last Quarter Review
In the most recently reported quarter, Mattel delivered revenue of USD 1.74 billion, gross profit margin of 50.16%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 278.00 million, net profit margin of 16.03%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.89; revenue declined 5.85% year over year and adjusted EPS fell 21.93% year over year.
A notable financial highlight was the sharp quarter‑on‑quarter rebound in profitability, with net profit up 421.74%, paired with a gross margin baseline of 50.16% that underscores a favorable mix and ongoing cost discipline. Main business highlights featured a balanced brand contribution: Hot Wheels at USD 547.20 million, Barbie at USD 413.90 million, Fisher‑Price and Thomas at USD 215.40 million, and Other at USD 790.20 million, while total revenue fell 5.85% year over year.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core brand performance and retail channel dynamics
The upcoming print will likely hinge on the cadence of demand across the core franchise brands, the pace of replenishment in retail channels, and execution on price and mix. After a quarter that established a 50.16% gross margin baseline and a 16.03% net margin, investors will watch whether those profitability levels can be sustained as promotional intensity normalizes and shipments align with sell‑through. The revenue forecast of USD 1.85 billion, up 13.62% year over year, implies healthier underlying demand and cleaner inventories versus the prior year comparable, setting expectations for an improved volume environment.
Product innovation and brand activations typically influence the seasonal sell‑in, and the core franchises—anchored by Hot Wheels and Barbie—are positioned to lead the range as retailers reset assortments. The strong baseline from last quarter’s brand contribution, including USD 547.20 million for Hot Wheels and USD 413.90 million for Barbie, suggests the mix can support margins if price realization and premium offerings hold. Operationally, the company’s ability to balance shipments with POS trends, manage freight and input costs, and limit incremental discounting will likely determine whether the forecasted adjusted EPS of USD 0.40, up 99.46% year over year, is achievable.
Beyond sell‑in, the channel posture matters for both revenue timing and profitability. Retailers aiming to optimize shelf space and inventory weeks may moderate orders for slower‑turning items while leaning into proven franchises and high‑velocity SKUs. Given the forecasted EBIT of USD 235.15 million, up 100.44% year over year, improved operating leverage is implied; execution risks are concentrated in merchandising calendars, regional demand variability, and potential FX or logistics noise. A clean channel would allow volumes to meet guidance without added promotional cost, reinforcing the gross margin profile established last quarter.
Hot Wheels as the near‑term growth engine
Hot Wheels contributed USD 547.20 million in revenue in the prior quarter, making it a central engine for the quarter at hand. The category’s breadth—from core die‑cast to track sets and premium collector lines—provides multiple levers for mix, which can translate into margin resilience if premium SKUs and multipacks maintain traction. The brand’s consistent consumer recognition and availability at scale across mass and specialty retail underpin the forecasted top‑line growth trajectory, particularly when channel inventories are aligned and newness hits shelves on schedule.
From a financial standpoint, Hot Wheels’ scale allows overhead absorption and supports operating leverage as volumes improve. In the context of a projected 13.62% year‑over‑year increase in total revenue, the brand’s contribution is likely to be proportional to its established revenue share, giving investors a clear read‑through to company‑level earnings if the brand executes on plan. Collectors and giftable SKUs tend to support price realization, and any incremental success in premium or licensed collaborations would enhance blended gross margins against last quarter’s 50.16% reference point.
The principal sensitivities for this brand in the quarter include the pace of replenishment post‑holiday, the balance of entry price points versus premium items, and promotional cadence. If shipments align with healthy sell‑through and retailers emphasize core pegs, incremental upside could emerge on volume without a material rise in promotional expense. Conversely, any imbalance between demand and shipments could pressure margins if discounting is required to maintain shelf velocity, which would be visible in gross margin progression relative to the prior quarter.
What will move the stock this quarter
Earnings beat or miss versus the consensus EPS of USD 0.40 will likely be the principal share‑price catalyst, with the quality of the print judged through gross margin behavior and commentary on channel inventories. Investors will scrutinize whether gross margin can remain near or above the 50.16% level in the face of normalizing price/promo dynamics; the balance of volume recovery and cost inputs will be key. On the income statement, the relationship between revenue growth of 13.62% and EBIT growth of 100.44% in the forecasts implies significant operating leverage that the market will want validated in the reported numbers and in the cadence implied for the next period.
Brand‑level color will also matter. A constructive update on Hot Wheels sell‑through and mix, plus stable trends for Barbie and Fisher‑Price and Thomas, could anchor confidence in the mid‑term earnings trajectory. With net margin previously at 16.03% and net profit at USD 278.00 million, the path to EPS upside will be most credible if management signals sustained cost control, measured promotion, and a SKU mix biased to higher‑margin items. Any update on the “Other” category at USD 790.20 million—often a blend of smaller franchises and ancillary revenue streams—could either validate breadth in the portfolio or reveal concentration risks depending on performance dispersion within that bucket.
Guidance framing and qualitative commentary may have as much impact as the reported quarter. If management’s outlook aligns with the revenue and EPS expansion implied by current forecasts, investors are likely to focus on the sustainability of operating leverage. Alternatively, a more cautious tone on retail orders or costs would recalibrate expectations quickly. In all cases, the sensitivity of the shares to margin commentary and the forward cadence of shipments relative to sell‑through suggests that color on channel conditions will be central to the post‑report reaction.
Analyst Opinions
Among the published views collected in recent months, the ratio of bullish to bearish stances is skewed to the bullish side at 1:0 when excluding neutral opinions, with a well‑known institution maintaining a positive outlook. Citi, through analyst James Hardiman, reiterated a Buy rating with a USD 25.00 target, underscoring confidence in a near‑term earnings recovery as the company laps a softer comparison and benefits from brand‑led execution. That call aligns with the quantitative setup embedded in the latest forecasts: revenue projected at USD 1.85 billion, up 13.62% year over year, adjusted EPS at USD 0.40, up 99.46% year over year, and EBIT at USD 235.15 million, up 100.44% year over year.
The bullish case emphasizes the potential for operating leverage as volumes return and the margin structure remains supported by mix and disciplined promotions. With the prior quarter establishing a 50.16% gross margin and a 16.03% net margin alongside USD 278.00 million of net profit, a constructive print would be one that demonstrates consistency or improvement in these profitability markers while delivering the forecasted top‑line growth. In this framework, the durability of Hot Wheels at USD 547.20 million and the baseline performance of Barbie at USD 413.90 million are critical for translating revenue gains into EPS, especially if premium SKUs maintain momentum.
Supportive analysts also point to the magnitude of year‑over‑year expansion implied for EPS and EBIT as evidence that cost discipline and product mix can drive earnings even in a measured demand environment. The projected 99.46% year‑over‑year increase in adjusted EPS and 100.44% year‑over‑year rise in EBIT suggest that incremental revenue adds are translating with high flow‑through, a dynamic that could reinforce the Buy narrative if realized. A consistent message on inventory normalization and restrained promotional activity would further bolster this view, reducing the risk that top‑line growth is offset by margin pressure.
In this context, the market may reward clarity on the sustainability of margin improvements and the breadth of brand contribution. If management confirms that sell‑through is tracking shipments and that the quarterly performance is not reliant on atypical one‑time factors, the path for multiple support becomes clearer under a bullish framework. Conversely, should revenue meet forecasts but margins trail, the bullish thesis would pivot to monitoring the pace of cost normalization and product mix in subsequent periods. For now, the prevailing bullish stance rests on the expectation that the combination of predicted revenue growth of 13.62% and a 99.46% uplift in adjusted EPS is achievable without outsized promotional costs, with brand execution—led by Hot Wheels—acting as the linchpin of delivery.
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