According to Barton Crockett, a senior analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, major hyperscale data center operators have likely reached the "peak of negative sentiment" regarding investor concerns over their massive capital expenditures. In an interview, Crockett noted that while companies like Amazon.com (AMZN.US), Google (GOOGL.US), Meta (META.US), and Microsoft (MSFT.US) have seen significant increases in capital spending, an improvement is expected as these expenditure levels begin to stabilize.
Concerning data shows that the combined capital expenditure of the four largest hyperscale operators grew approximately 66% year-over-year. Crockett indicated that this surge is "effectively evaporating free cash flow" for these firms. However, he believes the period of highest investor anxiety has probably passed. Crockett stated, "I think the biggest worry right now is about the spending and whether they can turn that spending into profit."
In contrast to hyperscale data center operators, Apple (AAPL.US) stands out for its relative stability. The company "does not pour massive capital expenditure into huge data centers like the hyperscalers," allowing it to navigate current market turbulence more effectively. Crockett described Apple's ability to maintain stability amid soaring memory costs and supply chain issues as "a kind of flexibility," highlighting the company's strength. He added that recent announcements align with expectations for a significant improvement in gross margins in the coming months.
Among the hyperscale operators, Crockett identified Meta as his top pick, citing its strong revenue growth and promising return on investment prospects. He also noted that Amazon.com presents an interesting investment opportunity if it can manage the "competitive noise related to Anthropic."
The analyst suggested that the current hardware-focused cycle may give way to strength in services and software stocks. Crockett maintained a "Hold" rating on Netflix (NFLX.US), describing it as "a well-managed company in an increasingly mature market." He pointed out that while Netflix's EBITDA growth is around 20%, the company faces challenges as younger audiences shift toward user-generated content platforms, where its competitiveness has diminished. According to Crockett, Netflix's viewership growth is no longer "rocket-like."
Looking ahead, Crockett predicts a shift in the technology narrative as hyperscale operators begin to "squeeze revenue from the investments they've made." He expressed confidence that capital expenditure growth will not repeat last year's two-thirds surge next year, potentially creating a more favorable environment for these companies to transition from heavy spending to revenue realization.
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