Futures markets saw a broad rally in US stocks, with an AI semiconductor frenzy ignoring the "computing metal" sector. Overnight, London tin closed up 2%. The latest settlement price was $50,595 per ton, an increase of $990, representing a 2% gain. Trading volume stood at 282 lots, with open interest at 211.87 million lots. Domestically, Shanghai tin futures fluctuated at high levels during the night session, closing slightly higher by the end. The main contract, Shanghai Tin 2605, settled at 394,040 yuan per ton, up 2,410 yuan, a rise of 0.62%.
On April 22, tin inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by 580 tons to 8,840 tons compared to the previous trading day.
According to a Changjiang Tin Industry report, Shanghai tin futures opened higher across the board today. The main monthly contract, 2605, opened at 392,060 yuan per ton, up 430 yuan. By 9:15 AM, the main Shanghai tin contract 2605 was quoted at 393,530 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,900 yuan, or 0.49%. After the high opening, Shanghai tin futures exhibited high-level volatility. From a macroeconomic perspective, overnight London tin led gains among industrial metals, rising 2%, driven by a combination of four favorable factors. Firstly, the announcement of an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire until April 25 significantly eased concerns over escalating geopolitical conflicts, leading to a notable recovery in global risk appetite and a broad-based rise in LME metals. Secondly, the密集 release of April manufacturing PMI data from multiple countries including the US, Europe, the UK, Germany, and France today prompted markets to preemptively trade on expectations of marginal manufacturing recovery. Thirdly, Brent crude oil returned above $100 per barrel, with soaring energy prices directly increasing tin smelting and transportation costs, providing rigid support. Fourthly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded 16 consecutive days of gains, setting a historical record. Explosive demand for AI optical modules and server solder has ignited a valuation reassessment for tin, the "computing metal." This, combined with COMEX copper inventories hitting a record high, has accelerated capital rotation into the undervalued tin market.
The tin market currently maintains a tight balance under low inventory conditions. On the supply side, the rainy season in major tin mining areas of Southeast Asia has not yet fully concluded, with ore shipments remaining below seasonal levels. The operating rate of domestic primary tin smelters hovers around 65%, limiting capacity expansion. On the demand side, the AI computing产业链's need for high-purity tin continues to exceed expectations, while traditional consumer electronics show signs of marginal recovery. Overall industry inventory remains at a three-year low. However, significant caution prevails in the spot market due to high prices. Downstream enterprises primarily replenish stocks based on immediate needs, resulting in light trading volume at elevated levels and intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
Market focus on April 23 will center on preliminary manufacturing PMI figures from various nations, the latest developments in US-Iran negotiations, fluctuations in the US dollar index, and crude oil price trends. In the short term, London tin is expected to maintain a strong, volatile trajectory. Shanghai tin is likely to follow the overseas market with modest gains in the morning session. However, upside potential may be limited by a rebounding US dollar index and profit-taking sentiment ahead of the May Day holiday. The main Shanghai tin contract is projected to trade within a range of 390,000 to 395,000 yuan per ton today. Trading strategy建议 light positioning with buying on dips, while remaining vigilant against risks such as PMI data falling short of expectations and potential reversals in geopolitical tensions.
Comments