Guo Weien, Executive Director of Valuation and Advisory Services at CBRE Hong Kong, stated that as of November, Hong Kong's property prices have increased by 2.8%, and rents have also risen by 4.3% since the start of the year, which is in line with CBRE's forecast at the beginning of the year. He pointed out that after three consecutive years of decline, the Hong Kong residential market has bottomed out and rebounded, indicating that buyers have regained confidence and fundamentals have generally strengthened. He expects that property price growth in 2026 will be higher than that in 2025, with an estimated increase of about 3% to 5%. He also mentioned that rents have hit a record high and are projected to continue rising in 2026, though the growth rate will be lower than that of property prices, estimated at around 2% to 3%. CBRE anticipates that transaction volume in 2026 will increase by 10% year-on-year, with total transactions reaching 65,000 to 70,000 units. Primary sales are expected to exceed 20,000 units, with an optimistic estimate of an average monthly sales volume exceeding 2,000 units. Meanwhile, secondary sales are projected to surpass 45,000 units, with an average monthly sales volume of over 3,500 units. In terms of inventory, the firm expects stock levels to start declining from the 2025 peak, albeit at a relatively slow pace. Since April 2025, developers have maintained stable primary sales, with approximately 1,600 to 2,200 primary transactions per month. CBRE further predicts that inventory will drop below 20,000 units by the end of 2026. Looking ahead, as inventory decreases by several thousand units, developers may reduce discount offers, which will support the continued rise of Hong Kong property prices.
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