On April 16, the economic performance report for the first quarter of the "16th Five-Year Plan" period was released. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in the first quarter of 2026, China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 33.4193 trillion yuan. Calculated at constant prices, this represents a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year, indicating a strong start for the economy and demonstrating enhanced resilience and vitality.
A relevant official from the National Bureau of Statistics stated that although the current external environment is complex and volatile, domestic supply remains stronger than demand, and the foundation for economic improvement needs consolidation, opportunities outweigh challenges, and solutions outnumber difficulties. There are ample conditions and confidence to achieve the annual targets.
Experts believe that the solid first-quarter performance lays a strong foundation for the full year. Industrial transformation towards innovation and upgrading, continuous improvement in domestic demand, deepening high-level openness, and effective policy support will jointly drive sustained economic improvement.
**Strong Resilience: Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations** The 5.0% year-on-year growth rate reached the upper limit of the annual economic growth target set in this year's Government Work Report and continues to rank among the top performers globally among major economies. Mao Shengyong, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that despite significantly increased external uncertainties, spillover effects from geopolitical conflicts, and particularly the high base from the same period last year, China's economy has advanced under pressure with a steady recovery in growth, which is commendable.
The 5.0% growth rate exceeded general market expectations, reflecting improvements in both supply and demand during the first quarter. On the production side, agricultural conditions were favorable, industrial production growth accelerated, and the service sector maintained rapid expansion. Among 41 major industrial categories, 34 industries achieved growth, with a growth coverage rate of 82.9%, indicating stable and smooth industrial and supply chains.
On the demand side, consumption, investment, and exports—the three key drivers—all delivered notable performances. Consumption steadily recovered, with total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 2.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points from the fourth quarter of the previous year. Service retail sales grew by 5.5%. Fixed-asset investment rose by 1.7% year-on-year, shifting from decline to growth. Infrastructure investment grew by 8.9%, with growth accelerating by 8.3 percentage points compared to the full year of 2025, becoming a key stabilizing force for investment. Foreign trade performance exceeded expectations, with total goods imports and exports reaching 11.838 trillion yuan, a 15.0% year-on-year increase, marking the highest quarterly growth rate in nearly five years.
Guo Liyan, Deputy Director of the Economic Research Institute at the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at the "2026 First-Quarter Economic Situation Analysis Meeting" that the strong and stable start with improved quality and efficiency in the first quarter of the "16th Five-Year Plan" period lays a solid foundation for achieving annual economic growth and socio-economic development targets.
Zong Liang, a senior researcher at the World Financial Forum, believes that China's focus on high-quality development and the 5.0% GDP growth in the first quarter signify its role in leading global growth.
**Substantial Quality: Distinct High-Quality Development Characteristics** Progress in industrial upgrading, livelihood improvements, and expanded openness during the first quarter tangibly reflects the quality of economic development. In terms of industrial upgrading, the shares of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing in the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. The value-added of information transmission, software, and IT services, as well as leasing and business services, grew by 10.6% and 12.2% year-on-year, respectively, contributing nearly 25% to economic growth collectively.
Regarding livelihood security, the urban-rural per capita disposable income ratio narrowed by 0.04 year-on-year to 2.23, with residents' income growth in central and western regions continuing to outpace that in eastern regions. Meanwhile, domestic employment remained generally stable, and the supply of essential consumer goods was sufficient. Additionally, comprehensive pilot programs for service sector openness expanded, the Hainan Free Trade Port operated smoothly and orderly, and pilot free trade zones were further expanded.
"These developments demonstrate the significant achievements of China's high-quality development," said Mao Shengyong.
In Guo Liyan's view, price levels are another indicator of improving economic performance. A reasonable rebound in prices facilitates domestic production, distribution, circulation, and consumption, creating a favorable price environment for economic operations. Data shows that in the first quarter, the national Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points from the fourth quarter of the previous year. In March, the PPI turned from decline to growth year-on-year. Mao Shengyong believes that the recovery in PPI positively impacts corporate profits.
**Vibrant Vitality: New Drivers Inject Sustained Momentum** The rapid growth of new economic forms and new drivers brings more economic vitality. "'New' industries and the 'new' economy are increasingly becoming backbone forces driving economic growth," Mao Shengyong stated.
In the first quarter, new advancements were made in cultivating new quality productive forces, characterized by four trends: high-end, intelligent, green, and new-type development. In high-end development, the share of value-added from high-tech manufacturing enterprises above designated size in total industrial value-added rose to 16.9%. Information transmission, software, IT services, leasing, and business services grew by 10.6% and 12.2% year-on-year, respectively. In intelligent development, daily AI token calls exceeded 140 trillion in March, an increase of over 40% from the end of the previous year. AI development empowers numerous industries, driving rapid growth in related sectors and extending to upstream industries like chemicals and power that provide raw materials and energy. In green development, the share of non-fossil energy consumption increased, and exports of the "new three" products continued to grow rapidly. In new-type development, the pace of equipment updates and technological transformation accelerated, with investment in equipment and tools purchasing up 13.9% year-on-year. Significant transformation results were seen in industries like petrochemicals and chemicals, key areas for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation.
Wu Ge, Chief Economist at Changjiang Securities, believes that China's complete industrial system and diversified energy structure continue to highlight cost advantages and competitiveness, with new drivers injecting sustained momentum into the economy.
The recently held National Service Industry Conference signaled efforts to promote integration between manufacturing and services. The conference proposed advancing producer services towards specialization and high-value chain extension, and promoting high-quality, diversified, and convenient development of consumer services.
Guo Liyan believes that as producer services move towards greater specialization and higher value chains, China's advanced manufacturing sector is expected to receive further support. Data shows that in the first quarter, investment in high-tech services grew by 12.3% year-on-year, with investment in professional technical services and information services rising by 29.5% and 20.9%, respectively, indicating that producer services are extending towards specialization and high-value chains, effectively activating new investment drivers.
Consumer services are closely linked to resident consumption, and the sustained release of consumption vitality also drives growth in the service sector's value-added. In the first quarter, retail sales in cultural, sports, leisure, tourism consulting, and leasing services saw double-digit growth. Holiday consumption and visa-free policies boosted inbound tourism, with new consumption scenarios continuously emerging.
Guo Liyan pointed out that the 5.2% year-on-year growth in the service sector's value-added in the first quarter is underpinned by the accelerated release of potential in consumer services.
At the ongoing sixth China International Consumer Products Expo in Hainan, AI glasses and flying cars have become tangible consumer products. Zong Liang believes that consumption not only drives short-term economic growth but also serves as a core driver for long-term economic development. Building an ultra-large-scale market will solidify the foundation for China's economic growth.
With first-quarter growth exceeding expectations, the future looks promising. "Based on current observations, the factors and core drivers supporting first-quarter growth are expected to maintain relatively fast growth rates in the coming period," Mao Shengyong stated. In the next phase, efforts will focus on maintaining stability while seeking progress, improving quality and efficiency, concentrating on domestic affairs, steadfastly promoting reform and innovation, and achieving effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy.
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