The company formerly known as MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, has started tracking Bitcoin's 200-week moving average and its deviation from the current price on its official website. The firm's founder, Michael Saylor, stated on social media that since this indicator became available, Bitcoin has traded above the 200-week moving average 92% of the time, and the current price is almost exactly at this level.
This 200-week moving average represents Bitcoin's approximate four-year average closing price and is widely regarded by traders and analysts as a key reference line for identifying long-term trend reversals. Such moving averages are commonly used to filter out daily price fluctuations, and when major market participants publicly focus on them, it often strengthens their self-fulfilling effect.
Strategy currently holds 843,775 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $53 billion. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $63,000, slightly below the 200-week simple moving average of $63,770. According to research from Kraken analysts, buying Bitcoin when it is below this moving average yields a median return of over 113% over a 12-month holding period and a median return of up to 313% over a 24-month holding period.
Historical data shows that in previous bear markets, downward momentum typically faded after prices fell to or below this moving average. However, the market still faces short-term pressure. Reports indicate that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act was not included in Monday's agenda of the U.S. Senate, a bill expected to unlock significant institutional demand for digital assets. The delay in its legislative process has sparked market concerns. Whether Bitcoin's price can find support near the 200-week moving average and repeat historical trends remains to be seen.
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