After a two-year delay, Apple faces a crucial test this evening. At its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) keynote, the company will formally unveil a comprehensive overhaul of Siri. This event represents far more than a simple product update; it is a pivotal moment for Apple to restore market confidence in its artificial intelligence strategy.
Market expectations suggest the new Siri will be powered by Google's Gemini as its foundational model, launched as a standalone app, and will directly compete with the functionalities of ChatGPT and Claude, featuring support for multi-turn conversations. This long-awaited upgrade, shelved for two years, is anticipated to be included in iOS 27, set for release this September. J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee previously noted that Apple's rare inclusion of an "AI advancements" topic on the WWDC agenda signals the company's confidence in delivering these upgrades on schedule.
For investors, the significance of this presentation extends well beyond the product itself. Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan estimates that a successful evolution of Siri into an AI agent could generate between $15 billion and $30 billion in incremental revenue for Apple by fiscal year 2030, contributing an additional $2 per share in earnings. The company's stock has risen 14% year-to-date, reaching a record high of $315 earlier this month. Its current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 33.4 times, above its five-year average of 27.6 times.
However, the market is divided on Apple's ability to deliver. MoffetNathanson analyst Craig Moffett warned this week that "the backdrop heading into WWDC 2026 is eerily similar to 2024—when all the optimism around AI was already fully priced in." He maintains a Neutral rating on the stock with a $270 price target, over 14% below the current trading price.
The Siri Overhaul: From Voice Assistant to AI Agent
Apple's ambitions for the Siri revamp go far beyond a typical feature update.
Reports indicate the redesigned Siri will debut as a standalone app, featuring a permanent "search or ask" entry point in the Dynamic Island, and is expected to replace Spotlight as the system-level global search interface for the iPhone. This would mean every search initiated at the system level would be routed through Siri.
In terms of capabilities, the new Siri is projected to handle multi-step, cross-app command execution, allowing a single spoken instruction to trigger sequential actions across multiple applications. It is also expected to introduce screen awareness, enabling Siri to read on-screen content and provide answers using a user's personal data. The Camera and Photos apps are set to integrate visual intelligence for real-world object recognition and AI-powered photo editing.
Bank of America's Mohan emphasized that Apple needs to evolve Siri into "an agent that can understand intent, retrieve context, call applications, and complete workflows." He noted that, unlike general-purpose AI models, a smartphone-based agent can comprehend a user's location, screen content, communication contacts, schedule, purchase history, and authorized app permissions, creating a truly personalized experience. "The near-term risk is in execution," he added.
Architectural Shift: Gemini Takes Center Stage, ChatGPT's Edge Narrows
The Siri overhaul also signifies a reshuffling of Apple's AI partnership landscape.
Previously, Apple's AI framework was built on its own models, with ChatGPT as the sole external option. The new framework is expected to function more like an AI query distribution platform—with Gemini serving as the foundational model for Siri, while users can freely choose to route questions to different third-party models, similar to switching default search engines in Safari. ChatGPT will move from an exclusive position to one among several third-party options.
J.P. Morgan's Samik Chatterjee anticipates this new architecture will open up multiple third-party AI model choices for users. For Google, this represents a significant ecosystem penetration; for OpenAI, its exclusive advantage is diminishing; for Apple, this is a strategic choice to build AI capabilities as infrastructure—owning the platform while letting the market compete on models.
Wall Street's Divided View: Optimism Meets Historical Caution
Ahead of this WWDC, Wall Street analysts' stances show clear divergence.
The bullish camp is led by Bank of America's Mohan, who maintains a Buy rating on Apple with a $380 price target. He believes that if Apple can successfully navigate core challenges like secure cross-app communication and sensitive data processing, Siri's transformation into an agent could unlock substantial profit increments by fiscal 2030.
The more cautious Craig Moffett highlights valuation risks. He points out that Apple's current P/E of 33.4x is above its five-year average of 27.6x. To justify this valuation, Apple must demonstrate that its AI features can trigger a significantly larger iPhone upgrade cycle or monetize AI through service revenue. "WWDC must deliver evidence of a true step-change," he wrote, noting that "Apple Intelligence, after a two-year delay, is now priced as a catalyst, not a risk—which is exactly what happened in 2024."
Fall Product Lineup: Foldable Debut and Pricing Uncertainty
Beyond tonight's keynote, Apple's hardware lineup for the second half of the year is also under close market scrutiny.
The foldable iPhone represents the most significant new product category, marking Apple's first foray into a foldable form factor. iOS 27 is expected to be optimized for it, featuring dual-column app layouts, an iPad-like multitasking mode, and new sidebar designs. A touchscreen MacBook is also slated for a simultaneous debut, with macOS 27 introducing touch-friendly interfaces and integrating the Dynamic Island onto the MacBook.
Pricing remains the biggest unknown. J.P. Morgan expects the iPhone 18 series could see a price increase of approximately $50 due to memory cost pressures. Notably, the standard iPhone 18 is not expected until the first quarter of 2027, with the Pro, Pro Max, and foldable models launching this fall—a staggered release schedule that could effectively push users toward higher-end models.
Historically, Apple stock has shown relatively stable performance in the window between WWDC and the fall product launches. Over the past decade (2016-2025), the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 in most years from early June to mid-September, with an average excess return of about 11%. This year, with multiple variables including foldable innovation, the substantial Siri overhaul, and the first touchscreen Mac, the market's potential for imagination is more substantial than in previous years.
Yet execution risks are equally real. Questions remain about whether AI features will launch on time, if foldable device quality control and pricing will be accepted by consumers, and whether price increases will impact shipment volumes. As Mohan stated, "The near-term risk is in execution"—and that is precisely the core question tonight's keynote must address.
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